November to bring colder weather and higher heating-related power costs
As days grow shorter and temperatures drop, heating increases electricity use in Estonia, driving up prices during morning and evening peak hours, Eesti Energia says.
In November of last year, average electricity prices during the morning hours between 7 and 9 a.m. were nearly 50 percent higher than the monthly average. During the most expensive evening hours, from 4 to 6 p.m., prices were on average about 65 percent higher than the monthly average.
In such conditions, regular consumers should monitor market prices closely or consider a fixed-price electricity package to protect themselves against sudden price spikes, said Karl Joosep Randveer, energy trading analyst at Eesti Energia.
"As we head into the winter season, prices will continue to depend on Nordic import availability, the NordBalt connection between Lithuania and Sweden and the EstLink connections between Estonia and Finland. Prices are also affected by the Nordic price level, wind energy production in the Baltic region and, crucially, temperature," Randveer added.
According to current data, transmission capacity restrictions of around 50 percent between Estonia and Latvia will remain in place through November. This means cheaper Finnish electricity may not reach beyond the Estonian market, Randveer said.
In October, electricity prices remained at a similar level to last year, but were roughly 11 percent higher than in September. The price increase was driven by colder weather, lower solar and wind power output and bottlenecks in electricity transmission between Estonia and Latvia.
Estonia was more dependent on imports than usual in October — while the country typically imports about a third of its electricity that month, this year nearly half of total consumption came from imports.
Maintenance and construction work on power connections in Latvia kept more affordable Nordic electricity in Estonia, which meant prices here were about 15 percent lower than in Latvia and Lithuania, Randveer said.
Even so, Estonia still saw several price spikes, during which the cost exceeded €0.15 per kilowatt-hour. These followed a clear pattern: prices across the Baltics tended to rise during hours when Estonia's oil shale power plants were running at higher capacity (around 186 megawatts) and Baltic wind production was below average (around 642 megawatts). During such hours — about 22 percent of the month — Estonia's average price was €0.173 per kilowatt-hour, while Latvia and Lithuania saw average prices of around €0.195.
Over the course of October as a whole, electricity in Estonia cost at least €0.15 per kilowatt-hour during 19 percent of the hours.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski
