Teacher shortages are a serious problem in Estonia, prompting researchers from the University of Tartu and Tallinn University to analyze the root causes and explore possible solutions. Until now, the primary response to the shortage has been to increase the number of teacher training spots at universities.

The study, led by Äli Leijen, professor of teacher education at the University of Tartu, examined all key stakeholders in the education sector and their views — from teacher training students and current teachers to school leaders, school operators and policymakers.

"First, we conducted a literature review and identified several factors associated with teacher shortages. To better understand the significance of these factors and the need for targeted interventions in the Estonian context, we felt it was important to explore how different stakeholders perceive the causes of the shortage and potential solutions," Leijen said.

The unsustainable status quo of the teaching profession

The average age of teachers in Estonia is around 50 and the proportion of teachers aged 60 and older is steadily increasing. Another key issue is that teaching has not been a first-choice career for many young people. Only a third of new teachers in Estonia say that becoming a teacher was their primary goal, compared with an average of 58 percent across OECD countries.

What is most concerning, according to Leijen, is the continuing decline in the number of qualified teachers in general education schools. According to the international TALIS survey, 46 percent of teachers in grades 7 through 9 in Estonia and nearly half of teachers under 30 are considering leaving the profession within the next five years. TALIS is an international study that gathers data on teachers, teaching practices, learning environments and working conditions across OECD countries.

Leijen stressed that the potential exodus of teachers threatens the sustainability of Estonia's education system. While the previous TALIS survey in 2018 highlighted a high attrition risk among young teachers, the trend has since expanded to older age groups as well.

"It's possible that not all who consider leaving will actually do so, but the message is still critical: for various reasons, teachers don't feel good in their profession or don't see a long-term future in it. Such a large share of teachers cannot be replaced within five years by equally qualified professionals, which means schools would no longer be able to support student learning in the same way," she said.

Why are teachers leaving?

While teacher shortages are a global issue, Estonia's situation is particularly acute due to the rapid rate at which teachers are leaving the profession. There are multiple reasons behind this trend. According to the study led by Leijen, key push factors often stem from teachers' personal characteristics. Well-being and health, for example, play a significant role. Teachers with less experience are also more likely to leave.

Leijen emphasized that it is especially important to provide appropriate support to early-career teachers. "New teachers need a reduced workload and strong support and collaboration with colleagues. Lower workloads and greater peer support are particularly important for those without formal qualifications, as they must also complete their teacher training alongside their teaching duties. Research shows that a teacher's first three years on the job are crucial — this is often when the decision to leave the profession is made," she said.

Other influential factors are related to the profession itself, such as career advancement opportunities, particularly for experienced teachers. Also important are the profession's public image and salary, as well as the school environment. Teachers are affected by student-related background factors and organizational culture.

A high number of students with special needs or from lower socioeconomic backgrounds increases the likelihood of teacher attrition. Teachers are also more likely to leave if their autonomy is limited, if collaboration and professional trust are weak or if there are persistent management issues.

Possible solutions

A study conducted in Estonia among six target groups — students, teachers, teacher educators, school leaders, school operators and policymakers — found that teacher shortages stem primarily from seven key issues, which largely align with findings from previous international research.

In connection with these causes, the various stakeholders also proposed a set of solutions:

• A positive public image of the teaching profession and purposeful communication
• Long-term national-level planning and evidence-based decision-making
• Improving the competence of school operators and leaders
• A more flexible and practice-oriented structure for teacher training
• Reducing the workload of beginning teachers
• Establishing competitive salaries and creating incentive packages
• Supportive leadership and a strong culture of collaboration in schools

Leijen pointed out that most of the identified problems and proposed solutions relate to the broader structure of the teaching profession and cannot be effectively addressed at the level of individual schools or small groups of individuals.

Stakeholders see reasons differently

While the study largely confirmed the findings of previous research, an analysis of the different stakeholder perspectives also revealed new angles. Estonia's education system is decentralized, with a high degree of autonomy among various actors. As a result, responsibility for teacher recruitment, succession planning and funding is dispersed across multiple levels.

Moreover, different stakeholders interpret the root of the problem in varying ways. While policymakers tend to point to shortcomings in school governance and teacher education, most other stakeholders cite the absence of a long-term national strategy as the primary cause of the teacher shortage.

"There were also conflicting views among respondents on other causes of and solutions to the teacher shortage. This points to fragmentation within the system and highlights the need for better coordination and collaboration. It is essential to clarify the responsibilities of each actor, define what is expected of them and determine how they can contribute to solutions. This process requires stronger leadership in Estonia," Leijen noted.

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