According to Johanna Linda Pihlak, analyst at Statistics Estonia, the main drivers of retail sales growth were motor fuel sales and industrial goods stores.

"Sales volumes in food stores, however, continued to decline in September, falling by 5 percent compared with the same month last year," Pihlak said in a press release.

Sales volume for companies selling motor fuels rose by 22 percent year on year. "This increase was influenced by the lower base level in September last year and falling fuel prices," she added.

Sales volume in industrial goods stores began growing again in September, up 6 percent compared with the same period in 2024.

Among industrial goods, the biggest increase — 29 percent — was recorded in other specialized stores, which primarily sell computers and accessories, books, sporting goods, games, toys and similar items. Sales volumes also grew by 8 percent in secondhand stores and in outlets operating outside of traditional stores, such as kiosks, markets and direct sales, by 5 percent in pharmacies and cosmetic stores and by 1 percent in textile, clothing and footwear shops.

Sales volume declined by 6 percent in online and mail-order stores. It also fell by 5 percent in department stores as well as in home goods, appliance, hardware and building material stores.

Compared with August, retail sales volume remained steady in September. According to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, sales rose 2 percent from the previous month.

In the first nine months of this year, retail sales volume increased by 3 percent compared with the same period in 2024.

Analyst: Growing fuel sales result of Lithuania's excise duty hike

SEB economic analyst Mihkel Nestor believes that September was a relatively satisfying month for retailers.

While retail sales had shown signs of recovery from the second half of last year through summer 2025, growth slowed following the VAT increase, Nestor noted.

"As expected, however, the slowdown was temporary. Retailers hoping for higher growth figures are now looking ahead primarily to next year. Tax changes taking effect in 2026 will benefit higher earners in particular band much of the resulting savings are likely to flow into consumption," Nestor said.

Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor, said the increase in retail sales volume was not driven by higher incomes or greater willingness to spend. When car sales are included, the total retail volume has actually fallen by about 2.9 percent year on year and the structure of household spending has shifted.

"A 22-percent increase in fuel sales might suggest people are driving significantly more, but in reality, the jump occurred earlier this year when Lithuania raised its fuel excise duty, prompting more trucks to refuel in Estonia. That's good news for fuel stations but says little about the broader state of the Estonian economy. The exact additional volume being sold is difficult to estimate," Uusküla said.

He also pointed out that a price war broke out between fuel companies in September, which pushed prices down and increased the volume of fuel sold in Estonia. "But it's unlikely this surge was profitable for the companies involved," he added.

According to Uusküla, the nearly 29-percent year-on-year increase in sales at computer and electronics stores also likely reflects successful exports by Estonian companies, rather than a domestic retail boom.

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