Last week, Lithuania's biggest airports closed their airspace and temporarily stopped operations four times after smugglers used weather balloons to move cigarettes into the European Union. The capital Vilnius is approximately 50 km from the Belarusian border.

But Lithuanian officials say the problem is not just about smuggling and is a hybrid attack against the country. President Gitanas Nausėda said: "We have a great deal of evidence, both direct and indirect, that this is a deliberate action aimed at destabilising the situation in Lithuania."

Lithuania plans to keep two border crossings with Belarus closed in response. When Finland closed its border with Russia, traffic was redirected to Estonia, but Peter Maran, head of the PPA's southeastern border checkpoint, said no big changes have been detected so far.

"There has not been a major impact so far. We did have the first bus passengers arrive overnight, whose aim was to travel to Western Europe. They said they were traveling through Estonia because it is no longer possible via Lithuania. So a few individual Belarusian citizens have arrived here, but this is not yet significantly reflected in the statistics," he said.

The official noted that the closure of border crossings between Lithuania and Belarus will likely have some effect in the coming weeks, though probably not a major one. That should become clear within the next seven days.

Bigger impact on Latvia, Poland

"The impact will likely be felt first in Latvia and Poland, because Estonia is already quite far away. Although it can be expected that the number of Belarusian citizens arriving in Estonia may grow somewhat," he said.

Maran thinks rerouting freight transport through Estonia is pointless due to the longer route: "Considering also that we have full customs control in the export direction, one could assume that freight volumes will primarily shift toward the Latvian borders. I would say the impact on Estonia's borders is currently rather modest."

The freight throughput capacity from Estonia to Russia is up to 20 trucks per day at both Koidula and Luhamaa, and on the inbound side, Estonia's capacity is up to 150 trucks per day.

Voldemar Linno, head of the Tax and Customs Board's customs control department, said the Baltic states are closely interconnected, so when something shuts down in one location, it is felt elsewhere.

"How much and in what way — that's very hard to predict," he said.

"We have an electronic border queue system through which we regulate traffic, and if we do see that things are starting to get out of hand on the outbound side, we can adjust it a bit and ease the load. As for the inbound direction, we can also regulate it, and if the border points fill up to some extent, we stop traffic and vehicles will be held on the Russian side," Linno explained.

The Tax and Customs Board official also noted that the first pressure will likely fall on Latvia's border crossings. Estonia's border will probably be used once queues start forming at the Latvian border.

"Right now, the number of vehicles crossing the border is very small. In fact, we've operated under much heavier loads in the past, with many more border crossings," Linno said, adding that the agency can handle a small increase in crossings.

'Unacceptable hybrid attacks'

Estonia's top politicians showed solidarity with Lithuania on Monday.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) said: "Helium balloons launched from Belarus into EU and NATO airspace are unacceptable hybrid attacks. These provocations must stop. Belarus must act responsibly and prevent any further violations. Estonia stands firmly with Lithuania."

Helium balloons launched from Belarus into EU and NATO airspace are unacceptable hybrid attacks. These provocations must stop. Belarus must act responsibly and prevent any further violations.

Estonia stands firmly with Lithuania @IRuginiene @GitanasNauseda

— Kristen Michal (@KristenMichalPM) October 27, 2025

Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said: "Estonia fully supports Lithuania following incursions into its airspace from Belarus, which have caused major disruption to civil aviation.

"We must protect our borders, impose costs for these hybrid activities by Belarus and ensure they will not succeed."

Estonia fully supports Lithuania following incursions into its airspace from Belarus, which have caused major disruption to civil aviation.

We must protect our borders, impose costs for these hybrid activities by Belarus and ensure they will not succeed.

— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) October 27, 2025

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