Isamaa has decided to take time out to consider which other parties to form a coalition with in the Estonian capital. The choice comes down to either two-party coalition with the Center Party or a four-party coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDE), Reform and Parempoolsed.

According to Aleksei Jašin, deputy chairman of Eesti 200, which is part of the current Tallinn governing coalition, taking time over the decision is a strategic move for Isamaa to discern which option will be more effective for the 2027 Riigikogu elections.

"It's a pure calculation, and I think that the big sponsors also have a say, and perhaps that will tip the balance one way or the other. I wouldn't be surprised if Norstat immediately conducts a poll to find out which one the people support more – a coalition with the Center Party or a four-party coalition," said Jašin.

According to Jašin, different factions have emerged within Isamaa itself.

"I have heard that about half the party support a coalition with the Social Democratic Party, the Reform Party and Parempoolsed, while the other half support a coalition with the Center Party," Jašin explained.

However, Isamaa's choice is not necessarily so black and white, as there are compelling arguments for and against both coalition options.

"Certainly, joining forces with the Center Party carries a greater reputational risk for Isamaa, but at the same time, when we talk about the distribution of positions in the capital, they would be divided equally in that case, and Isamaa would get a lot more important leadership positions in Tallinn," explained SDE MP Raimond Kaljulaid.

"If we are talking about a four-party coalition, then Isamaa actually has a lot to gain in the negotiations, but at the same time, it is clear that the distribution of positions would not be so favorable for them. And there is also a reputational risk there, because if we think about it, there was essentially a similar four-party coalition in Tallinn, and that did not go entirely smoothly," Kaljulaid added.

Former Mayor of Tallinn Jüri Ratas (Isamaa), who was a member of the Center Party at the time, said his current party will definitely not hold negotiations with both potential coalition configurations. It is therefore necessary for Isamaa to take time now to figure out which are the best and most reliable coalition partners. Nevertheless, it is impossible to avoid discussing issues of national importance with an eye on the 2027 Riigikogu elections.

"Are the Tallinn elections related to those at the national level? Of course they are. I remember a situation in politics where party leaders resigned because their parties were not elected to Tallinn City Council. So we cannot separate this from (national) politics in any way. After all, the issue of taxes will be seriously up for discussion in the 2027 Riigikogu elections," said Ratas.

Isamaa has previously sought to gain power at the local level by focusing on broader national issues.

"At that time, the issue was changing voting rights, and it was demanded that state policy issues be agreed upon during the negotiations to form the city government. I think there is no reason why Isamaa will not do the same thing this time around," Kaljulaid said.

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