Researcher: Russia no longer has enough personnel to maintain pace of Ukraine offensive

Russia's easing of restrictions to allow reservists to serve abroad shows the country no longer has enough personnel to maintain the pace of its offensive on Ukrainian territory, said ICDS researcher Igor Gretski.
The Russian government has eased restrictions on the use of reservists abroad, which could allow another one and two million soldiers to fight in Ukraine, according to various estimates.
Gretski said this means that the Russian Ministry of Defense no longer has enough personnel to maintain the pace of its offensive on Ukrainian territory.
He added that one option would be to hire more soldiers, but there are fewer and fewer people willing to go to war for the money being offered. Russia lacks the funds to increase pay.
For political reasons, the government is also unwilling to announce a new mobilization, the researcher added. Therefore, to increase the number of soldiers, it was decided to involve reservists. The decision concerns the so-called active reserve.
Gretski explained that Russia has two types of reserves: the general reserve, which includes all men up to a certain age, and the active reserve.
"These are voluntary reservists who have military service experience and have signed an agreement with the Ministry of Defense to receive a small monthly payment in exchange for a commitment to participate in training and special call-ups. The trainings take place annually and last up to 30 days," he explained.
Under the new amendment, future trainings can last up to 60 days, and reservists may also be deployed outside Russia's borders.
"I believe the Russian Ministry of Defense first wants to turn these reservists into a military force in Ukraine, and second, to persuade at least some of them to sign long-term contracts with the ministry," said Gretski.
According to members of the Russian State Duma, there are nearly two million people in the active reserve, but the ICDS researcher estimates the number to be lower.
"This is a state secret. But from my perspective, there may actually be fewer than one million, and it's unclear how many of them will ultimately sign permanent contracts with the Ministry of Defense," said Gretski.
Until now, it has been said that Russia currently lacks the forces to deploy elsewhere. While Gretski believes the Baltic states and Poland should remain alert, he says that even with the involvement of reservists, Russia is still focused on Ukraine.
"Of course, this might raise concerns for the Baltic states or Poland, but the main goal of the Russian Ministry of Defense's initiative is to achieve its objectives in Ukraine," he said.
--
Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!
Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Helen Wright










