Kaju said that in recent weeks, Russia's increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward the United States and the European Union has dominated the strategic level. "They accuse the EU and the U.S. of threatening Russia by supporting Ukraine. At the same time, they conveniently forget that this entire situation was created by Russia itself through its aggressive behavior and its military assault on Ukraine," Kaju said.

He added that Russia continues to push forward in Ukraine, suffering heavy losses in personnel and equipment while still making gradual territorial gains.

According to Kaju, Russia's main effort remains focused on the Donbas region, where roughly 400,000 troops are concentrated along a 200-kilometer section of the front.

He said the entire front line stretches about 1,000 kilometers, with an estimated 900,000 Russian troops involved in the war against Ukraine.

"In Donbas, the main direction for the Russians remains toward Pokrovsk. The operation to capture Pokrovsk began last December and is still ongoing. So, in essence, we can say that Pokrovsk has become a new Bakhmut. Ukraine has built very strong defensive positions there and Russian progress is slow," Kaju said.

He added that Russian forces are also trying to advance toward Kupiansk and Lyman. "It's important to note that the Russian push toward the Oskil River crossing points in both those directions threatens the supply lines of Ukrainian units on the river's western bank. So far, Ukraine has managed to keep the situation under control by bringing in additional forces, but Russian pressure continues," he said.

The situation around Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Kherson is relatively static, Kaju noted. "We are seeing some increase in Russian activity near Zaporizhzhia, but compared to Pokrovsk, the situation there remains mostly unchanged," he said.

Kaju emphasized that the so-called front line is not a single narrow line on the map but rather a zone several kilometers wide where small units from both sides operate — a zone largely dominated by drones.

"In other words, when we talk about the front line, we're not talking about a thin line on the ground but rather a broad area," Kaju explained.

In conclusion, Kaju said that despite Russia's ongoing offensive pressure, its advance remains extremely slow — though it does continue. "Russia is suffering very heavy losses, but as we've seen, that hasn't been a deterrent for them," he said.

"Now, as autumn deepens and weather conditions worsen — with falling leaves and reduced natural cover for soldiers — we expect Russian advances to become even more difficult. Still, we cannot rule out that the offensive will continue," Kaju said.

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