Estonian industrialists and economic analysts are cheering: foreign orders are returning! Specialists who were kept on the payroll through leaner times once again have their hands full. The "old friend" labor shortage is back. The Nordic countries are waking up and our footprint in Germany is growing. But is everything really all right?

A drowning person will grasp even at a straw. Naturally, renewed demand for our relatively affordable labor is better than no demand at all. It's also clear that Estonian industry is developing rapidly — its growing technological level is constantly creating new opportunities for exports and new enterprises, while wages are rising and career prospects expanding.

Still, we must not let ourselves believe that the most important issues are now resolved and we can rest on our laurels. In the longer term, this progress is merely a shift from a life-threatening situation to a tolerable one — the greatest dangers have not disappeared.

Cheap and simple production inferior even with fancy machinery

The world is becoming increasingly unstable, and as a result, industry is slowly moving back to Europe. Supply chains and the division of labor among European countries are intensifying. This, among other factors, is driving the current surge in foreign orders for Estonian industry.

The other side of this coin is that we are being pushed toward doing simpler and cheaper work. When the Chinese are no longer seen as reliable, Nordic entrepreneurs want Estonians to sweat for their benefit instead.

Some readers may raise an eyebrow at that. After all, we've rapidly automated — we no longer do dirty, physical labor. Estonia's factories are clean, bright and modern, full of expensive machines.

That's all true. But low-end work is done the same way in China, too. This doesn't signal Estonia's breakthrough to a new level — it simply reflects the overall progress of industry worldwide. Even in new, state-of-the-art factories, producing components to order remains, at its core, the same old low-paid labor.

Hands neither wealthy nor in charge

In the international division of labor, there are masters — those who create products tailored to client needs, register patents and reap the wealth that comes from engineering and innovation. And then there are servants — those who sell their working hours to produce the masters' designs.

Life is diverse and every developed industrial country must maintain its own production capacity and capability. Exporting manufacturing services — when prices are strong and the work is highly profitable — is nothing to be ashamed of. Every nation does it and even Estonian companies now outsource some production tasks to Sweden.

But it would be a serious problem if Estonia's economy were made up mainly of servants catering to foreign masters. In that case, we would remain poorer than our northern and western neighbors for generations to come. For all Estonians to prosper, more of our entrepreneurs must know how and above all want to be masters in international business.

It must be emphasized that Estonians will not become masters in European industry on their own or by drifting with the current. On the contrary, the existing masters have every interest in keeping us and other lower-level producers quietly in our place.

For example, Finland's economic and education strategy documents from recent years clearly reflect a mindset that Finland should focus on research, development and other highly profitable stages of production — while relying on subcontractors abroad for manufacturing. It's not hard to guess whom they have in mind.

This is not a criticism; it's simply sound economic reasoning and we would likely act the same way if we were in their position. But it is nonetheless a fact that Finland's long-term plans already build in Estonians' role as servants.

If we, for our part, naively celebrate the "recovery of exports" and go along with it uncritically, we are essentially signing our name to the economic constitution of Greater Finland — one that would carve in stone Finland's permanent role as the master of this region and Estonia's as the servant.

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