Kaju, head of the Defense Ministry's readiness department, said Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has now lasted 187 weeks, with no signs of ending anytime soon.

Still, he suggested that despite Moscow's ongoing aggressive rhetoric, Vladimir Putin may be beginning to realize that the war cannot continue indefinitely in its current form because Russia's economy may soon be unable to sustain it. Kaju added that public support for the war in Russia has also begun to decline somewhat.

"Ukraine's systematic strikes against Russia's energy infrastructure have certainly contributed to this situation, further amplifying problems in the Russian economy, especially at the grassroots level. Still, ignoring all the warning signs in both micro- and macroeconomics, Putin continues his most senseless war in modern history," Kaju told the weekly media briefing on Friday.

The official said some experts had suggested that Putin was counting on a so-called summer offensive by Russian forces, which was expected to break the Ukrainian military's resistance and force Kyiv to accept Putin's terms. "But as history shows, the Russians have often greatly overestimated their own capabilities," he said.

"This is reflected in the tactical situation on the ground, where, despite heavy losses, the Russians have managed to advance only in very limited areas. Although it is clear that they are trying to adapt to the changing nature of the war and the arrival of new weapons on the battlefield, methodologically, they still rely largely on Soviet military doctrine. In other words, they try to apply constant pressure on Ukrainian units to find weak points. This is also evident in the number of daily attacks, which has remained fairly stable over the past several months, fluctuating between 150 and 180 attacks per day across the front line," Kaju explained.

He noted that the most active Russian operations are still in Donbas, where four of the six Russian force groupings in Ukraine and most of their elite units are concentrated.

"A good example is the direction near Dobropillya, close to Pokrovsk, where marine infantry units from five naval fleets have reportedly been deployed. The operation to capture Pokrovsk began last December and the main Russian effort now is to seize control of Highway E50, which ensures supply to Pokrovsk," Kaju said.

In addition, he highlighted the Kupiansk area, where Russian forces have advanced. "If they were to capture Kupiansk, they would cut off supplies to the entire Ukrainian contingent on the left bank of the Oskil River. That is why Ukrainians have continually reinforced this sector," the official said.

According to various estimates, Russia has lost an average of 25,000 to 27,000 soldiers killed and wounded every month since the start of the war, but has managed to replace these losses through different measures.

"In the fall of 2022, there was the partial mobilization — which, by the way, still has not been canceled — that brought 300,000 people into service. In 2023, much of the fighting was done by convicts. By 2024, Russia had developed a system of recruiting both volunteers and contract soldiers, some forcibly, using promises and deception to also enlist foreigners. While the officially reported recruitment figures continue to exceed targets, even Russian sources admit that many of the newly enlisted are increasingly older or in poor health — people who can barely hold a weapon, let alone carry out tactical operations," Kaju said.

"One might conclude that Russia has fewer and fewer people fit for active duty who are still willing to die for Putin, even for large sums of money. Continuing the war in its current form may become unexpectedly difficult for Russia," Kaju added.

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