The incursion, close to the uninhabited island of Vaindloo, in the Gulf of Finland, lasted an unprecedented 12 minutes. The F-35s flew from Ämari Air Base, around 45 kilometers west of Tallinn.

Italy's air force currently holds the rotating NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission role; the Russian planes were also tracked by Finnish and Swedish jets while in the region.

Security expert Meelis Oidsalu said the response was proportionate and could point the way to more resolute but still peaceful stances should anything similar happen again.

"I very much hope that in the near future, we'll hear the NATO secretary general say something along the lines of: NATO is prepared to use force to defend its red lines and the principle of collective defense. A statement like that alone would already serve as a strong deterrent," Oidsalu said.

"It's likely being assessed that Russia intends to continue its fragmented military harassment tactics, including along NATO's northeastern flank, and this kind of issue needs to be addressed early," he added.

The incident was amplified internationally in part due to Russia's recent drone incursion into Poland, which was more serious due to its scale, Oidsalu said. He noted there has long been talk about the need to shift NATO's air policing mission into a full-fledged air defense mission.

"If that hasn't happened by now — if it hasn't been clearly stated publicly — then something is off. And if no clear signals or actions come out of the Article Four consultations to convey that message to Russia, then something's wrong. Then, we're looking at a crisis," Oidsalu cautioned.

Another expert, Rainer Saks, said what matters now is whether NATO's next steps will effectively deter Russia and prevent further provocations, which may fall elsewhere.

"The chance that the next provocation will look the same and take place again in Estonia or Poland is very low. Typically, in these situations, something new is attempted. NATO's communications now must be proactive and must not give Russia the opportunity to seize the strategic initiative," he said.

Former Estonian Air Force commander Col. Jaak Tarien reiterated earlier comments that NATO had acted according to protocol, and this also explained the incident's duration.

"The whole thing lasted 12 minutes because the Italian jets didn't escalate. They saw that the Russian aircraft had no intent to attack. They used all peaceful means — radio communication, hand signals, wing gestures — and, ultimately, the Russians complied," Tarien said.

He added it was both a deliberate test by Russia of NATO's boundaries and an attempt to divide NATO allies. Saks agreed, saying another objective on the part of Russia is to discredit NATO's decision-making process.

"In my view, Russia's main goal right now is to shift the dynamic in the war in Ukraine — by trying to pull the United States into more active negotiations and to influence Europe, but especially the U.S., to reduce support for Ukraine," Saks said.

Sweden has confirmed that the Russian aircraft were armed. The Russian jets were eventually escorted toward the Kaliningrad exclave.

As to why no use of force, including kinetic force, was deployed on Friday, Tarien said: "We can't publicly discuss the exact procedures, but theoretically, if it had been clear that the jets were carrying air-to-ground weapons and heading toward a NATO or Estonian target of strategic importance, then entirely different measures would have been taken."

Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) said Friday evening that "there are certainly various parameters for the use of force," noting that the three Russian planes "were escorted out of here after they had received the signal," even as "they did not leave as quickly as they could have."

It is this last aspect that has been a driving force in Estonia seeking NATO Treaty Article Four consultations. Those talks are set to go ahead on Tuesday.

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