The breaches have been recorded since NATO expanded its rotational Baltic Air Policing Mission to Estonia in 2014 following Russia's invasion of Crimea. Until then, allied jets were only stationed in Lithuania.

While all three Baltic states have air forces, they lack fighter jets. The NATO mission secures the region's airspace.

Incursions in Estonia's airspace peaked in 2016 at 10 and have been five or below since 2019. There were no violations reported in 2023 or 2024.

However, NATO jets are still regularly scrambled to monitor Russian jets flying close to the alliance's airspace.

It is common for Russian jet crews to fly without the planes' transponders turned on. They usually do not file pre-flight plans, and do not establish two-way radio communication with air traffic control.

Explaining why Russia breaches Estonia's airspace, Commander of Estonian Air Force HQ Col. Janek Lehiste told ERR News last year: "It is hard to find a purely military rational reason behind such behavior. Most likely it is a matter of posturing and messaging."

Tony Lawrence, head of the Defense Policy and Strategy Program at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn, said Russia achieves several things with its tactics.

"It's a statement about how Russia views Estonia's sovereignty. It tests the response of the NATO air policing mission and causes them to launch aircraft to intercept the intruder. And it's a hybrid warfare tactic – part of spreading uncertainty and fear in neighboring states," he told ERR News in 2024.

"Vaindloo is on the frequently used route between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad and is close to where Russian-controlled airspace meets Estonian-controlled airspace. Russian military aircraft on this route often 'cut the corner' and spend a minute or so in Estonian airspace," Lawrence added.

Intentional act or mediocre pilot?

Former head of the Estonian Air Force Col. Jaak Tarien told the Baltic Sentinel website there is "no doubt" Friday's incursions were "deliberate."

"Earlier violations near Vaindloo Island, where Russian aircraft spent only a few dozen seconds in Estonian airspace — you could wonder whether it was intentional or just a mediocre pilot," he said on Saturday (September 20).

Tarien also explained the reason why Vaindloo is the site of incursions.

"There's also a Soviet-era legacy in how airspace is organized near Vaindloo. The St. Petersburg Flight Information Region (FIR) and the Tallinn FIR do not align with the state borders. So part of Estonian airspace near Vaindloo still belongs to the St. Petersburg FIR," he outlined.

"More than 20 years ago, Estonia planned to first finalize the land border and then start negotiations to realign the FIR boundaries. For obvious reasons, it has long been impossible to hold constructive talks with Russia."

Tarien said Russia carried out a similar incident in 2004, just weeks before Estonia joined NATO: "Back then, two Su-27 fighters flew over Tallinn Bay, just a few kilometers from the city."

Article 4 consultations

Friday's incident comes amid a series of recent Russian airspace violations against NATO countries.

In the past week, a Russian attack drone flew for nearly an hour over Romanian territory. At the same time, fighter jets in Poland were scrambled after drones entered its airspace, prompting a two-hour civilian warning.

Wreckage from a Russian attack drone was also found off Latvia's western coast.

Next week, consultations with alliance members will be held under NATO's Article 4 at Estonia's request.

Poland called similar talks earlier this month after more than a dozen Russian drones entered its airspace via Belarus.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!