Statistics Estonia's lead analyst Käthrin Randoja examined what became of those who faced the same choices five years ago after finishing basic school. The study tracked about 12,250 young people who completed basic school in the 2019/2020 academic year, following their progress in education after one, three and five years, broken down by gender and native language as of year's end.

Eighteen percent of basic school graduates did not complete upper secondary (high school) education within five years

Of those who finished ninth grade five years ago, 96 percent immediately continued to upper secondary education, either in high schools or vocational schools.

Among graduates whose native language was Estonian, 97 percent continued on to upper secondary studies, compared with 94 percent of those with Russian as their native language.

"By the third year after completing basic school, the share of students still in upper secondary education had fallen by 6 percentage points among Estonian-speaking youth and by 9 percentage points among Russian-speaking youth. This shows that Russian-speaking young people dropped out more often," Randoja explained.

"Within five years, 82 percent of that cohort had obtained an upper secondary diploma from either a high school or a vocational school. Among Estonian-speaking graduates, 84 percent earned the diploma, compared with 78 percent of Russian-speaking graduates," she added.

"There is also a notable difference between women and men: 86 percent of women earned an upper secondary diploma, compared with 79 percent of men," Randoja pointed out.

Men and Russian-speaking youths more likely to pick vocational education

According to Randoja, about three-quarters of basic school graduates, or 71 percent, continued their studies in high school, while one-quarter, or 25 percent, enrolled in vocational secondary schools. Only 1 percent entered vocational training programs that do not provide an upper secondary education.

Here too, Randoja said, the data reveals a clear difference by native language: 74 percent of Estonian-speaking graduates chose high school, compared with 63 percent of Russian-speaking graduates. Meanwhile, 22 percent of Estonian-speaking graduates opted for vocational secondary education, compared with 32 percent of Russian-speaking graduates.

"An even bigger gap appears between the sexes. Eighty-two percent of girls went on to high school, compared with 61 percent of boys. At the same time, 35 percent of boys continued in vocational secondary schools, compared with 15 percent of girls," the analyst highlighted.

By the fifth year after finishing basic school, 40 percent of graduates had advanced to higher education — 29 percent in bachelor's programs and 11 percent in applied higher education. The vast majority reached this level through general secondary education (97 percent), not vocational secondary education (3 percent). Another 6 percent of young people were still pursuing either general or vocational secondary education and another 6 percent were completing vocational training only.

"Nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of basic school graduates had already entered the labor force exclusively by the fifth year. Of them, 24 percent were employed and 8 percent were registered as unemployed. In total, 52 percent remained in the Estonian education system, with 35 percent of students also working alongside their studies," Randoja said.

She added that OECD data suggest 3–4 percent can be expected to be studying abroad five years after finishing basic school. "We do not have data on those who went abroad to work. The group classified as inactive may also include people with disabilities or entrepreneurs who are not registered as employees," she noted.

The effect of mother tongue on education

Randoja said the data shows that both native language and gender affect participation in education. "Five years after finishing basic school, 56 percent of Estonian-speaking youth and 40 percent of Russian-speaking youth are still studying in the Estonian education system. Among women, 59 percent continue their studies, compared with 45 percent of men," she explained.

As a result, Russian-speaking youth enter the labor market earlier: by the fifth year, 29 percent of them were working but no longer studying, compared with 22 percent of Estonian-speaking youth. Eleven percent of Russian-speaking youth were registered as unemployed, compared with 6 percent of Estonian-speaking youth.

According to Randoja, an analysis of educational pathways shows that those who continue to high school after basic school are the most likely to reach higher education.

"Although vocational secondary education does not rule out the possibility of moving on to higher education, so far it has been more the exception. Few vocational secondary graduates pursue applied higher education as well. In the sample studied, only 7 percent of applied higher education students had a vocational secondary background, while 93 percent had a general secondary education," Randoja noted.

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