Estonia's self-sufficiency in pork production to fall to 39 percent in 2026
Estonia's self-sufficiency in pork production is expected to fall from 72 percent to just 39 percent next year as a result of the recent African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak.
The gaps in store shelves will need to filled by imported meat for at least a couple of years.
Ten years ago, during the first outbreak of ASF, Estonia's self-sufficiency in pork production fell from 100 percent to 73 percent. And that is roughly where it stayed. However, due to the current epidemic, it will fall from 72 percent to 39 percent next year, according to estimates by the Estonian Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce. As a result, pork imports are predicted to double.
"The gap that will arise has to be filled with imports, and so, today meat industries are looking for opportunities to increase imports. That is the reality. Even in the best-case scenario, the recovery will definitely take a couple of years," said Ants-Hannes Viira, head of agricultural policy at the Estonian Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce.
Currently, all the fresh pork sold in Estonia's Coop stores is produced domestically. But what will happen if Estonia's self-sufficiency levels when it comes to pork production do declines.
"Today, our suppliers have assured us that they will try to maintain this level. It is likely that there will be more processed meat products from outside Estonia. In a sense, it is inevitable that promotional offers for fresh meat will not be at the same level as before," said Oliver Rist, purchasing director at Coop Estonia.
Half of Rimi's pork sales already come from fresh imported products. Marilin Jürisson, Rimi's commercial operations lead, said the decline in Estonian meat production could also lead to a fall in Estonian meat consumption.
"If Estonian producers reduce production, then unfortunately that will indeed be the case. Consumers are extremely price-sensitive, so something would have to change significantly for consumers to start preferring domestic products over imports given the prices. So, things may remain in favor of imports," said Jürisson.
Due to the decline in production, Estonia's pig farmers are expected to lose €42 million in sales revenue next year. Since pig farming has not fully recovered from the previous epidemic, the question arises as to whether it will be able to do so this time, said Viira.
"I think the situation or context is a little different this time. Back then, we had over 1,000 pig farmers, 95 percent of whom essentially went out of business. The new biosafety requirements that were introduced proved too much for them, and they couldn't keep up. Today, however, the sector is dominated by larger, stronger companies. There is definitely a desire to resume production," said Ants-Hannes Viira, head of agricultural policy at the Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce.
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Editor: Michael Cole, Marko Tooming
