EDF commander: Unlikely Russian drone incursion in Polish airspace an accident
The overnight Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace was likely not an accident, Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) commander Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo said.
A "significant" number of Shahed-type attack drones entered Polish airspace overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
While it was not the first time a Russian drone had violated Polish airspace and that of Lithuania, Latvia, and Romania, Poland's shooting down of the drones was the first time a NATO country has directly engaged Russian assets in its airspace since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started.
In any case, the incursion was unlikely to be an accident or the result of electronic interference, Merilo said.
Poland's use of force in responding to the flights was proportionate and lawful, Merilo added.
"I think that all the decisions that have been made are very right and appropriate and send the right signal to Russia that there is no point in testing NATO's vigilance," he said.
The incident has prompted speculation that the incursion was deliberately done to test NATO resolve.
"I would rather venture to state that Russia is deliberately and knowingly escalating and testing. Perhaps this is also synchronized with the smaller-scale exercise Zapad and its strategic deterrence narrative, which they are trying to push very forcefully in a westwards direction," Merilo went on.
As to whether the security situation in the region has changed, Merilo replied that war has been going on on European soil into the fourth year, and there has always been the possibility that escalation would follow. "We have seen the spillover of war effects across borders, including an attack drone landing on Estonian territory. And today, what is happening in Poland is a clear example that this war can indeed come across the usual borders at any random moment."
"I would venture to state that this is a normal course for a war that has been ongoing in Europe for some time already, meaning the possibility of escalation is always there," he went on, stressing that at present everything is under control.
The EDF commander said that Estonia and its allies are always at a high level of vigilance. "We pay attention to everything that would give us sufficient indication that something is going to happen next," he said.
"In any case, what has been happening is a very clear and forceful reaction and let us call it correctly – this is Russian aggression, this time it is taking place on NATO territory."
Merilo noted that the automatic action to take down the drones which entered Polish airspace is the same action, including getting a positive identification on a drone's origin, that would happen in Estonia in such a case.
"It is also vital to understand that we must first detect the drone, and then also identify it 100 percent. We are in peacetime; in our airspace normal air traffic is taking place, so we cannot simply start shooting at random at objects flying in the air. Certain procedures need to be carried out. These procedures have been rehearsed. It all comes down to whether our technical capability is able to spot the drone, which is designed to evade enemy air defense," he explained.
Merilo's predecessor as EDF chief, Gen. Martin Herem, had written on social media on Wednesday that Poland had probably not been the intentional target.
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has also stated that last night's drone incursion was probably intentional.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Valner Väino
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' interviewer Iida-Mai Einmaa.
