Although Pedassaar does not recall seeing people sunbathing on September 8 in previous years, this is in fact the third autumn in a row that has been warmer than average.

"This warmth has reached us from the Ionian Sea, supported by the favorable position of atmospheric air currents. To the east there's a high-pressure system, and to the west, a low-pressure area. From the Mediterranean, across the Balkans and Poland, a narrow low-pressure corridor stretched to the Baltic Sea, bringing warmth to our region," Pedassaar explained, adding that the current autumn heat will last until Thursday.

She pointed out that while rainfall between September 8 and 15 has been close to normal based on data from recent decades, temperatures have been well above average. This trend extends across Estonia as well as Latvia, Finland, Sweden and Norway.

Between September 15 and 22, the deviations are expected to be milder, with more rain clouds forecast. "A low-pressure system will arrive on Friday, and in the following days there may be showers. But it will still be warmer than average. Temperatures will no longer reach 25 degrees Celsius [77 F], but 20 degrees [68 F] is achievable in sunnier spots," Pedassaar said.

By late September, temperatures will remain slightly above average. Around the transition from September to October, rainfall is expected to stay near normal levels, while temperatures will gradually move closer to seasonal norms.

"This could actually mean nicer weather, with more sunshine. But autumn will inevitably set in," Pedassaar noted, adding that by mid-October, warmer-than-average conditions are expected again. "That's when I see Indian summer: warm, golden weather, with sunshine and no rain," she said.

Pedassaar said this summer's weather was very unevenly distributed. "Eastern Estonia got heavy rainfall, while Western Estonia was much drier. In the three summer months, eastern areas received 300–400 millimeters of rain. Fifty years ago, that amount could have been spread across an entire year. Of course, we can't compare ourselves with people living around the Indian Ocean, where 8,000 millimeters of rain can fall over three summer months," she said.

"Why was it raining on one side of Estonia while the sun was shining on the other? Normally, our weather should move west to east, but recently it's been coming from the north or the south. This is called a blocked weather pattern, which means if it turns dry, it stays dry longer. If it rains, the rain lasts longer or falls in greater amounts," the meteorologist explained, adding that some of the reasons are also man-made.

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