Estonia's winter electricity prices expected to match last year's levels
Electricity sellers in Estonia are forecasting winter prices similar to those seen last year.
A rise in the price of electricity as autumn arrives is already noticeable, with contributing factors including technical faults bringing the EstLink 1 cable offline.
"Our current outlook for winter is not significantly different from the same period last year. Gas prices will be similar, perhaps even a little lower. CO2 prices will be relatively similar. Some additional renewable energy has been added, which means that when the wind blows, prices could be somewhat cheaper. Plus hopefully both EstLink 1 and EstLink 2 will hold out, which will certainly help keep overall price levels a little lower than last year," Marko Allikson, CEO at trading company Baltic Energy Partners, told "Aktuaalne kaamera."
A rise in electricity prices when autumn arrives is standard; this year windless conditions and prolonged maintenance of the EstLink 1 cable and the windless weather are behind the rise.
On the other hand, EstLink 2, connecting Estonia and Finland, which was down for the first half of 2025 thanks to the actions of a Russian shadow fleet vessel at Christmas time, is now back online.
Summer's prices were pretty low, though already started to rise in August, sellers say.
Alexela's head of energy trading Kalvi Nõu said the price rise in September will be higher, putting this down to a fall in solar energy generation and maintenance work on nuclear power plants in Finland and transmission stations in Finland and Sweden.
"Naturally the weather also plays a role. In September, if windier weather comes, this may help bring the price down a little, but overall in the coming weeks we can expect on average higher prices," Nõu said.
Enefit's head of energy products Alo Vallikivi cited supply and demand as the main factor; supply of renewables in summer is usually higher, at a time when demand is lower, mostly due to the long days.
"But in winter, when there is less supply from renewables and higher demand, then it is quite normal for prices to be on the rise. More price-sensitive customers could consider keeping their costs under control, and think about fixing their electricity prices," Vallikivi said, referring to fixed
Rising consumption with the arrival of the colder weather results in higher prices, also influenced by the price level at natural gas-fired power stations.
Nõu put this at up to €200 per megawatt-hour, "so we will increasingly see those days and hours when prices reach those heights," he said.
EstLink 1 will be offline and under maintenance till late on this month as things stand.
Vallikivi put the resulting price rise up to now at around "one to two cents per kilowatt-hour higher than usual," adding that the scheduled maintenance of Finnish nuclear power stations, which has also exerted an upward pressure on prices, will soon end.
"Thus means a certain price drop in both Finland and the Baltic states," Vallikivi added.
The main risk is to EstLink 2, Nõu noted. Were this to go offline before EstLink comes back online, "that would be very bad and then electricity prices could go much, much higher," he said.
Last winter, daily prices rose from €75-130 in mid-November to figures over €220 per MWh on the day, and hourly prices close to €550 per MWh, in mid-December.
After EstLink 2 went offline in late December, prices remained high and generally in three figures both hourly and daily. Hourly prices as high as €773 per MWh were seen as late on as late March. Even in late April, hourly prices as high as €250 were not uncommon.
The price of electricity for today, Tuesday, is €135.69 on average, ranging from €73.18 per MWh during the cheapest, off-peak hours, to €369.37 at peak hours.
A month ago today, the average price quoted on the Nordpool market was €51.13 per MWh, with highs of €146.34, and prices going even slightly into the negative during the cheapest hours.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
