The head of the Estonian Pig Breeding Association (ETSAÜ) warns the situation is so severe, Estonians might have to forgo having a domestic traditional Christmas pork roast this year. Is that really the case?

Indeed, Estonia is facing the worst outbreak of [African swine fever] it's ever seen. Dozens of farms have infected pigs, and 55,000 animals are slated for culling. Compared to the 2015–2017 outbreaks, when 27 farms were affected and 40,000 pigs culled, we can already see this is seriously impacting the entire pig farming sector as well as other parts of the supply chain.

Major pork brand Frank Kutter has announced it's shutting down. Do you know how many other companies might be facing the same choice? There are over 130.

The EPKK has raised this with the government. While we know losses from culling are compensated when ASF is confirmed, processing industries have to cover costs themselves — currently already to the tune of around half a million euros. We've told the government that this isn't sustainable. Industries need support to continue production. These messages are very concerning within the sector.

Currently, 55,000 pigs are slated for culling, leaving around 250,000. When might Estonia reach the point where local pork production can no longer meet demand?

In light of Thursday morning's news, the impact on trade and consumers will start to be felt in about six months' time. The pigs from breeding herds being culled — that will reduce production capacity. This clearly has an impact. We expect the impact in about six months, though we hope the ASF outbreak can be contained quickly.

So far, containment hasn't worked. Could things get worse?

Unfortunately. This needs serious attention, and businesses have made that clear. Responding after the fact is far more expensive than prevention.

How close are we to a critical point in domestic pork supply?

Looking at this morning's news that the first ASF case was found at Ekseko — Ekseko represents 45 percent of Estonia's domestic pork supply. With Estonia's overall supply at about 72 percent now, that means it will now drop to 37 percent — which is a major drop and a serious cause for concern.

Should we also be worried about a threat to food security?

Yes. This clearly shows we need to address and mitigate all food security risks. Right now it's African swine fever, but earlier this year, there were also serious warnings about the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and avian flu, and those issues require attention.

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