Tough break with the Reform Party's approval rating. The culprits? Spring, summer, fall, winter — and Kaja Kallas. And at one point, reportedly, also Jevgeni Ossinovski.

By the way, some people may not have noticed, but Kaja Kallas is no longer the chair of the Reform Party or the prime minister. Hasn't been for more than a year now. So removing her won't help fix the current situation.

Never mind the rating. The real question is: what kind of future is current Estonian politics shaping and what will that future demand from us?

Illimar Lepik von Wirén laid out our survival strategy in the early 1990s in Postimees on July 20: low taxes, avoiding foreign debt, balanced budgets and economic freedom. "Learn from history!" said Winston Churchill.

The Estonian people wanted their own currency, and as soon as possible. It had to be trustworthy and that meant the state had to be trustworthy too. So managing the currency had to be as simple as possible — understandable, manageable for the people in charge at the time and convincing to the public.

That's why the Estonian kroon was introduced with a fixed exchange rate and backed by the German mark. But that came with strict economic policy constraints. A balanced budget was essential for the kroon's survival. Government borrowing posed a serious risk to it. The rules were ironclad — but simple to manage.

Survival required productive investment, which soon started to flow in. The most transparent and well-organized privatization in all of Eastern Europe, low taxes, minimal restrictions. No protective tariffs, no subsidies for the economy — not even for agriculture.

Today's Estonia is broadly hostile to both domestic and foreign productive investment. That is the biggest flaw in Estonia's investment policy. Entrepreneurs complain about erratic and indefinitely delayed court decisions. Protesters — often made up of the same core group — march from one new construction site to the next. It's supposedly civil society. But friends, that is not civil society! Neither the government nor the public should tolerate it.

In the coalition agreement that launched the new government on July 23, 2024, there was a seemingly offhand clause about reinstating corporate income tax. Never mind that the Reform Party reversed its own reinstatement of the tax this past spring. The damage to credibility was done... and who's to say it won't be brought back again tomorrow? Abolishing the corporate income tax has been a core idea of the Reform Party since 1995. It was a bold and innovative move — one that became the backbone and symbol of Estonia's investment policy.

A borrowed future will prove costly

Ever since the restoration of independence, Estonia's economic policy has been accompanied by a chorus of voices shouting: "Take out a loan! Loans are free! Take 50 million! Take a billion!" The EKRE, Isamaa and Center Party government eventually heeded that chorus on a large scale.

Now the current government is falling into the same trap, claiming that the budget has been balanced. But the fact is — it hasn't. According to the Ministry of Finance's forecast, next year's budget deficit will be 4 percent. That doesn't even account for planned pay raises and other rushed benefit promises. So next year, we'll be borrowing at least €1.6 billion just to cover the state's recurring expenses.

Estonia's national debt stands at €6.942 billion (according to the Ministry of Finance website). The interest rate on government bonds is 3.3 percent. That's €5,000 of debt per person or €20,000 for a family with two children. Each person pays €165 a year — each family, €660 — in interest alone to lenders. Let's think ahead about what we're actually getting in return for that money.

Greece is a beautiful country. An independent nation. They even have their own alphabet that others can't read. And what a history! Greece also made history in finance. By 2010, Greece had borrowed so eagerly that no one would lend to them anymore. The budget deficit was over 15 percent of GDP. The country was bankrupt. The lenders stepped in. The conditions for receiving aid were dictated by the so-called troika: the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. The terms they imposed were harsh.

The people began to rebel and the government rebelled too. At first, they refused to comply with the terms. But eventually, even the communist-led government was forced to accept them. And Greece returned to the fold.

There were many protests — often violent. Young people protested the loudest: "We're not to blame! Punish those who took out the loans and those who gave them — pushing the country into ruin!"

Estonians have a wise old saying: "Borrowed bread and kindling don't last long." But even more apt is this one: "Debt belongs to someone else." And the one it belongs to gets to decide what you can do with it. Take a loan and you subject yourself to the lender's conditions. In the end, the benefit you gained from the loan comes at a much higher cost.

The 15 million gold rubles received through the Treaty of Tartu in the 1920s were simply lost in efforts to do favors for "our own." You don't ride into the future for free. You don't get rich by handing out freebies. Adam Smith thought so back in the 18th century. Consistency and perseverance are essential components of trustworthiness in politics.

Yet again, there's a race to give away free benefits. Within the Reform Party, there's this illusion that somewhere out there is a tool to magically win over public opinion and voters. That tool is believed to be the distribution of handouts — financed, of course, with loans taken out in the name of future generations. Machiavelli is forgotten, who warned that a ruler should be stingy and refrain from giving gifts. Give gifts and you do good for a few — but harm the many.

The Reform Party will never be able to outdo its rivals in populism and demagoguery — no matter how hard it tries. That's not our song. Margaret Thatcher never tried to please anyone. She did what she believed was right. And she remained Prime Minister for 11 years — longer than anyone else in UK history. Until her own people betrayed her.

A better future impossible without climate policy

In June, Eurobarometer conducted a survey on climate policy. Eighty-one percent of Europeans supported the EU's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. In Hungary, that number is 90 percent. Estonia ranks last — far behind all other countries — with only 46 percent support, the only nation where a minority backs the goal. The next-lowest is the Czech Republic, where support still constitutes a majority at 63 percent. It's worth noting that the European Union is the world's leading proponent of climate policy. Its main opponents are, unsurprisingly, Russia and the United States.

Not long ago, we — meaning the Reform Party — considered climate issues our own. But under the current government, climate topics have sharply receded into the background. As a politician, I understand why — especially after the energy agreement we signed and then canceled ourselves. Green energy is now disparaged, even though it's cheaper for us than burning gas or oil shale. Still, politicians feel the need to please voters. And greens are a bit odd, too. And then, of course, there are the approval ratings... But voters are not all the same. My grandchildren could still be alive in 2100. What kind of natural environment will our votes leave them?

Green issues are future issues. Floods, scorching sun, Spanish slugs — they're already here. Which of our rivals could credibly lead on climate after the next parliamentary elections? Maybe the Social Democrats — if they have any time left over from their equality agenda. Isamaa? Don't make me laugh.

The Reform Party has always invested in the future — for better or worse. The party must be unified around core values, not chasing after every weekly poll. "Running after the evening news is not a policy," Henry Kissinger once said.

If the Reform Party falls, something truly awful will take its place. Populism and demagoguery, the interests of second-rate business figures, pseudoscience and conspiracy theories — yesterday's world. And by the way, the Reform Party's fall doesn't only mean electoral defeat. It also means becoming something we never were. Singing a song that isn't ours. Let's keep that in mind as we draft the new state budget.

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