Kannik was formerly head of the International Center for Defense and Security think tank in Tallinn and joined Kallas' team in January. He is an advisor on strategic policy and political analysis.

He gave an interview to Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" program on Friday about the situation in Ukraine following last week's U.S.-Russia Alaska summit and the meeting between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents.

"In reality, it does come down to just two countries that clearly do not want it. One is Russia, for whom the current front line is certainly not what their initial goal for the war was, and therefore they don't want to accept a peace agreement," said Kannik, in response to a question about which countries want peace in Ukraine and which do not.

"And the other is likely China, which is interested in the continuation of the conflict in Europe. As the Chinese foreign minister told Kaja Kallas in a meeting a few months ago, we are not in a situation where we can allow Russia to lose the war, because in that case, the U.S. could shift all of its attention to the Pacific region," he added.

"Leaving out Russia and China, it seems to me that basically everyone else would be on board with it," Kannik noted.

He believes Ukraine would agree to peace under conditions acceptable to Kyiv, having been at war for four years.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues to play games with the peace process, the expert added, although he is now forced to put in more effort due to increasing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and the West.

Russia would not withdraw troops after a ceasefire

Kannik rejected claims that Russia would withdraw a large portion of its forces from there and use them to threaten other neighbors if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine.

"The mistrust between the Russians and Ukrainians is so total that neither side can afford to pull too many units from the front line or the line of contact. Maybe 20 percent of troops could be slowly withdrawn, but a large-scale pullout would not happen, because the Ukrainians know very well that the Russians will be waiting for the next opportunity, and, frankly, the Russians know that if Ukraine sees any weakness in Russia, they will seize that chance. So even after a potential peace, we would not see any major troop withdrawal," he explained.

However, Ukraine has already bought a great deal of time for Europe, and by now Europe's defense industry is clearly gaining traction, with funding beginning to flow, Kannik added.

"It's good for us if a real Russian threat does not materialize immediately, but takes more time, then we will definitely be in a better position. And I think that is inevitable anyway. Even if there were a ceasefire, Russia would not be able to go to war again immediately, they will also need time to recover," he said.

Kannik also expressed doubt about the Russian army's capability to capture large areas of Ukraine, not even the four oblasts they have claimed as their goal.

"Unless the Ukrainian army collapses completely, I do not see how the Russians could cross the Dnipro River or actually capture the major city of Zaporizhzhia, that would be extremely difficult," he said.

No major Western concessions to Russia

Kannik also said he does not believe that Western countries would make major concessions to Russia or that the U.S. would genuinely support Moscow's demands against Ukraine.

"I do not currently fear that there are people in Europe who are ready to make very large concessions to Russia in the name of so-called peace that would not lead to real peace. I think there is a fairly broad consensus in Europe right now that Russia is not yet serious about negotiations," he said.

Kannik said Trump cannot make decisions entirely on his own because he cannot ignore the Republican Party. He said it is important to show who is at fault, and if Europe and Ukraine are cooperating, but Moscow is not, then it shows that "Russia is not genuinely ready to compromise."

"First, public opinion in America, even among Republicans, is still relatively strongly pro-Ukraine. That is definitely one important factor. The second factor is that if the U.S. begins to restrict the use of its weapons in this war, it would be a long-term and major setback for the U.S. arms industry. If countries around the world see that, at any given moment, political leaders might start limiting the use of U.S. weapons, then those weapons will no longer be very attractive to buy — and that's a business language Trump understands very well," Kannik explained.

"I find it entirely plausible that the situation will continue more or less as it is now: Europe and Ukraine themselves will buy American weapons, the U.S. will not contribute financially, and the U.S. will not significantly increase pressure on Russia, that is a scenario I do see. But that the U.S. would effectively side with Russia or end or obstruct support to Ukraine, I'm not really worried about that today," he said.

Europe is Ukraine's biggest financial backer

Kannik also emphasized Europe's role in supporting Ukraine and pointed out that Europe is already Ukraine's main financial backer.

"Money always comes more slowly than we would like, but it is coming. I believe Europe will manage financially. Certain problems arise with certain types of weapons, that is clear. Europe does not have enough of some, and some types simply are not available, which certainly creates additional challenges for Ukraine. But even that, I think, would not prove decisively fatal in the war," he said.

"The most important thing is still that if Ukraine decides to continue fighting and believes it must, then we are capable of providing enough support to allow them to do so. And that means that no matter how much we ourselves may occasionally worry about this, the U.S. and Russia will not be able to push Europe out of this process," the expert stressed.

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