Center's strong Tallinn rating does not guarantee return to power
With a little over two months to go until the local elections in Estonia, campaigning is gaining momentum. In Tallinn, the polls are suggesting the Center Party will be the largest single party by votes in a city it once dominated, but not enough to stop a broader "rainbow coalition" from keeping it out of office.
While surveys are generally showing a Center Party lead in the capital, it has yet to regain the level of support it had in previous local elections.
Political scientist Mari-Liis Jakobson told "Aktuaalne kaamera": "At the moment, the Center Party does not yet seem to have a majority. Right now, their support is even lower than in the previous elections, where they actually did not get a majority of votes. There is nothing certain here yet."
Following the last local elections in October 2021, Center, which had ruled alone in Tallinn for many years, had to form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SDE). This alignment stayed in office until April last year.
Political scientist Martin Mölder of the University of Tartu said nearly all the parties have the opportunity of entering office in the capital, though as a coalition partner of the Center Party.
This does not mean a coalition without Center, as is currently in office, must be ruled out, however, Mölder said, adding that it would mean a broad alliance.
"To do this, SDE, the Reform Party, and Isamaa would not only have to join forces with each other, but they would probably also have to get one more coalition partner in addition, likely Parempoolsed," Mölder said.
Estonia's second city, Tartu, is seen as more important by the Reform Party, Mölder noted. The party has long been dominant there, and in some other municipalities, for instance, Rae, just outside Tallinn and in the prosperous commuter belt.
"Were the Reform Party to suffer a defeat in the local elections either in Rae municipality or in Tartu, or with both of these local governments, then that would be a very black mark for the party I think," Mölder went on.
Reform was in office in Tallinn with SDE, Isamaa, and Eesti 200 from April 2024 until last month, when it left the city government, ostensibly over the issue of kindergarten fees. This means the remaining coalition is a minority government.
Parempoolsed is contesting its first local elections since being founded in 2022, and according to the polls, it will likely win seats in Tallinn.
Party leader and Tallinn mayoral candidate Lavly Perling said that Parempoolsed's list in the capital will be ready at the beginning of September.
"We have some very smart people in the party on the lists and also people with experience in politics, who can also help with their advice on how these lists can be shaped into the best ones," Perling said.
In addition to political parties, electoral alliances are also running in Tallinn. These are more common in provincial Estonia, where they reflect a particular municipality's unique issues, but in Tallinn too, they can often pick up protest votes.
Olga Ivanova, a former Center MP, is heading up one such list in the capital. "People are looking for those who are competent, who have something to offer from their experience — I am speaking for myself. The fact that it is possible to choose something else is what draws people," Ivanova said.
Jakobson was skeptical of the prospects of success for this approach, however. "It is feasible that for some voters this would be an argument, but enthusiasm of this kind for rallying behind a newcomer is not visible at the moment," she said.
Polling day is October 19, meaning parties have a little over two months for campaigning across all 79 municipalities.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Johanna Alvin
Source: "Aktuaalne kaamera," reporter Anne Raiste.
