In its latest survey, the Institute for Societal Studies asked respondents to evaluate potential coalition options in Tallinn based on support percentages from the most recent local elections.

In July, Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced that the Reform Party would rule out post-election cooperation with both the Center Party and EKRE. However, among Reform supporters, the least popular coalition is not one involving Center, but rather a coalition between the Center Party and EKRE.

Among EKRE supporters, the most favored coalition is one between EKRE and the Center Party, receiving 82 percent support.

Voters for Isamaa are most supportive of a coalition between Isamaa and Center, with 50 percent backing.

Among Center Party voters, the most popular option is also a coalition with EKRE, supported by 38 percent of the party's electorate.

For supporters of Eesti 200, the most preferred coalition includes the Social Democrats, Isamaa, the Reform Party and Eesti 200, with 56 percent backing that combination.

Reform Party supporters would also prefer a coalition that includes the Social Democrats, Isamaa, Reform and Eesti 200. This option is supported by 50 percent of Reform voters.

Among Social Democratic voters, the most popular coalition would be one between the Center Party and the Social Democrats, supported by 39 percent of the party's electorate.

Least popular options

The Institute for Societal Studies also asked respondents which potential coalition they found the most objectionable.

Among EKRE supporters, 67 percent identified a coalition made up of the Social Democrats, Isamaa, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 as the least desirable option.

Among Isamaa voters, 29 percent considered a coalition between the Center Party and Reform as the most objectionable.

Among Center Party supporters, 48 percent viewed a coalition involving the Social Democrats, Isamaa, Reform and Eesti 200 as the most unappealing.

Supporters of Eesti 200 were most opposed to a coalition between the Center Party and EKRE, with 82 percent against it.

Reform Party voters also found a Center–EKRE coalition the most unacceptable, with 81 percent opposing it.

Among Social Democratic voters, 72 percent said the coalition they disliked most was between the Center Party and EKRE.

Respondents were also asked to name their second least preferred coalition. Based on the results of both questions, only 5 percent of Reform Party supporters would exclude a coalition with the Center Party as either their first or second least preferred option. Three percent named it their top least preferred, and 2 percent as their second least preferred.

Martin Mölder, associate professor at the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies at the University of Tartu, said the results indicate that EKRE and Center voters primarily see Reform as the problematic party, while supporters of Reform, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats are most strongly opposed to EKRE.

"Reform and Social Democratic supporters are not particularly critical of the Center Party if the coalition also includes their own party. For instance, among Social Democratic voters, a coalition with Center is actually the most preferred option (39 percent) and a significant share of Reform Party supporters (55 percent) would prefer a coalition with Center as either their first or second choice," Mölder said.

He added that Center voters are more likely to rule out a coalition with Reform. "Isamaa voters clearly lean toward more conservative coalitions and their aversion to a coalition with liberal parties is roughly twice as strong as their support for such an option," Mölder noted.

Norstat conducted the survey online from July 31 to August 1 among Estonian citizens aged 18 and older. A total of 1,000 respondents participated.

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