On Wednesday, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) presented an overview of the newly completed development plan for the Ministry of Defense's area of administration, which outlines the military capability upgrades Estonia will undertake over the next four years.

The national defense budget for 2026 is projected to be around €2.4 billion. Over the four-year period, the total budget will exceed €10 billion.

Procurement accounts for 37 percent of the budget, ammunition for 25 percent, personnel costs for 14 percent, operating expenses for 13 percent, intelligence and early warning for 3 percent, support for the Defense League for 3 percent and infrastructure investments for 5 percent.

According to the plan, by 2029 Estonia, in cooperation with its allies, will have established credible deterrence and developed a defense force that is adaptable to change and capable of engaging adversaries before they reach Estonian territory, with support from the defense industry.

The future model for the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) envisions improved situational awareness, more modern weaponry, greater ammunition stocks, as well as an increase in active-duty personnel and more advanced training.

"If we look purely from the perspective of firepower, all branches of the armed forces are undergoing major upgrades. Our firepower will become greater and deeper — we will be able to engage the enemy from farther away. Our situational awareness will also be significantly better. This means our eyes, ears and overall intelligence-gathering capabilities will be on a completely different level," said Pevkur.

The defense minister emphasized that developing these new capabilities requires more active-duty personnel and changes in training.

"Implementing this vision — described by the commander of the defense forces as a 'Defense Force Ready to Win' — will be the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense and our partners in the years ahead," Pevkur noted.

The reach of Estonia's firepower exceeds 300 kilometers

The state is placing emphasis on engaging adversaries before they reach Estonian territory.

According to the plan, Estonia's firepower will eventually reach targets more than 300 kilometers away.

The CV90 infantry fighting vehicles already in use have a firing range of three kilometers. Anti-tank weapons like the Javelin and Spike systems can reach targets six kilometers away and air-to-surface munitions currently in use have a range of over 40 kilometers.

"More artillery systems are on the way. We're acquiring additional K9s and Caesars — both wheeled and tracked platforms. We've already received various types of air-to-surface precision munitions with ranges beyond 40 kilometers. These are loitering munitions, as they're called in English," Pevkur said.

"Our latest developments — HIMARS systems — have already been partially delivered. We aim to double the number of HIMARS units and to procure additional long-range systems. We're also seriously considering domestic production and cruise missiles, which would further extend our deep-strike capabilities," Pevkur added.

Brigade to be created for multilayer air defense development

The Estonian Defense Forces will establish an air defense brigade to develop a layered air defense system.

"This air force brigade will also oversee medium-range air defense systems, which we are continuing to procure. Our agreement with Diehl Defence and the IRIS-T system has been renewed," he added.

Short-range air defense systems will receive substantial reinforcements, with the state planning to acquire additional Piorun systems. Other systems will also be upgraded, Pevkur noted.

The state has also launched a market survey for ballistic missile defense.

Pevkur emphasized that developing certain capabilities that extend beyond the four-year horizon requires making preliminary decisions now.

"This primarily concerns ballistic missile defense, naval vessel replacement and the scout battalion's combat vehicles — namely the current CV90s, which have reached the end of their service life. Their replacement will partially extend beyond the four-year timeframe and we've made preliminary decisions accordingly," the defense minister explained.

Ground forces development focus on guidance systems and drones

In developing the ground forces, the focus is on concealed command systems and drone capabilities.

There will be significant growth in capabilities that are not visible to the eye, the defense minister noted.

"These include command systems, support functions and measures related to operational security. It's not very difficult for an adversary to know where the Defense Forces' main headquarters is, but it must be difficult for them to know where our secondary locations are — such as various mobile command posts," Pevkur said.

"These are developments that you won't often see in parades. You won't see communications solutions, targeting systems or battlefield management systems. But these are precisely the kinds of advancements that enable the EDF to be prepared for any threat," he added.

Over the next four years, around €150 million will be invested in developing drone capabilities. However, the value of framework agreements is even greater — for example, the loitering drone program alone is valued at €300 million, Pevkur noted.

Unmanned aerial units will be integrated into both brigade-level and territorial defense units.

In addition, the EDF will establish an artillery regiment and begin replacing the CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. The CV90s currently in use are planned to be mothballed and kept in reserve.

Navy to replace its patrol vessels

In the naval domain, the plan is to extend the service life of the existing minehunters. The three minehunters currently in use are expected to remain operational until around 2040. Renovation of the vessels is scheduled for 2027.

The replacement of patrol vessels will begin with Pikker, which was transferred from the Police and Border Guard Board (PPA). "The goal is to move forward with procurement as quickly as possible and to complete the replacement process within four to five years," Pevkur said.

Force protection boats will arrive significantly sooner, the defense minister emphasized. "As for the exact delivery timeline in the procurement process — I hope they'll already be here next year," he added.

The plan also includes acquiring additional anti-ship missiles and naval mines.

"And of course, maritime surveillance — coastal defense radars, which we will replace, will provide us with a much clearer operational picture for the navy," said Pevkur.

Active-duty personnel to grow to 4,400 by 2030

According to the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, the number of active-duty personnel is expected to reach 4,400 by 2030.

"That's a very ambitious goal — one that demands serious attention. How do we get there? By increasing admissions to the academy. Already this year, we're admitting 150 cadets to the Estonian Military Academy, instead of 90," Pevkur said.

Conscripts will also have the opportunity to enroll directly in the academy after completing their basic soldier training course.

Support payments for reservists participating in exercises have already increased in line with the consumer price index, and starting next year, support for conscripts will also be raised.

To retain active-duty personnel, the state will begin offering service-based compensation.

"This is especially critical starting at the rank of major. Both positions and ranks must be clearly aligned," Pevkur added.

The situation regarding recruitment into active service is critical.

"Entry numbers have been very low, and that's why the commander of the Defense Forces clearly stated that if we want to bring more people into active service, the entry threshold must be such that young people are even willing to consider serving their country," said Pevkur.

Funding for the Defense League to grow

The total funding for the Estonian Defense League is set to increase by approximately €75 million over four years, reaching nearly €315 million.

"Every person who has chosen to dedicate their volunteer time and efforts to the defense of the Estonian state must know that they have all the equipment they need. They must have places to gather. That's why Defense League buildings, especially in poor condition — such as those in Järva and Rapla — will be prioritized for renovation. Preparations are also underway for facilities in Põlva, Võru and Tartu," said the defense minister.

The state will also allocate more funds to shooting ranges, ensuring people have better access to firearms training and, where necessary, the ability to own weapons.

In addition, the government will support the purchase of field equipment for youth members of the Defense League.

"Both the Young Eagles and Home Daughters — these organizations are extremely important to us. We expect that a very large majority of Young Eagles will voluntarily enter conscription service," Pevkur noted.

There are also plans to introduce drone training in schools.

"With regard to youth, I'll also highlight something we agreed on in the coalition agreement — introducing drone education in schools. We are ready to fund this, and, of course, the Defense League, the Defense Forces, relevant experts and the Ministry of Education will work together to determine how to make this a reality in schools," the defense minister said.

Planned additional munitions to be procured in five years

Since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Estonia's investments in ammunition procurement are set to reach €5 billion. This includes acquiring munitions for new capabilities, striking enemy targets on their territory and strengthening air defense.

Instead of spreading procurement over seven years, the state will now acquire the planned ammunition within five years.

"This €5 billion allocated for ammunition between 2022 and 2029 — and the additional funding on top of that — has allowed us to accelerate our procurement timeline. A large portion of our ammunition acquisitions have already been completed. We've already entered into contracts," Pevkur said.

"The steps taken by the Estonian government since 2022, when the full-scale war in Ukraine began, have been absolutely right. Every support package that included ammunition allowed us to lock in contracts before the market overheated. I believe we've secured very strong contracts. We have a very precise overview of which contracts are pending, which are signed, when deliveries will take place and when the ammunition will actually arrive in Estonia," the defense minister stated.

Pevkur added that bringing ammunition into Estonia requires storage facilities and the state is investing heavily in building these depots.

Infrastructure focus on Baltic Defense Line

The infrastructure development budget amounts to approximately €470 million.

The state plans to develop the Baltic Defense Line, garrison infrastructure, ammunition depots and complete construction of the Narva garrison.

There are also plans to establish a forward command post at the corps level, if needed.

"We've allocated funds in the development plan so that, should the German-Dutch corps wish to establish a forward command post in Estonia, we already have a designated location. Our preferred site is in Pärnu. We're in close contact with the city of Pärnu and have asked the municipality to reserve the necessary land," said Pevkur. "If that decision is made, we are ready to begin construction of the forward command post immediately."

Development will also continue at the Nursipalu Training Area and Reedo garrison.

Defense industrial park

The budget for defense industry and innovation development is €50 million.

"We're creating a dedicated Command for Innovation and Future Capabilities, whose role will include taking calculated risks and conducting testing. It must be prepared for the possibility that not everything proposed by industry will ultimately succeed in becoming an operational capability," said Pevkur.

Regarding the defense industry park, negotiations have taken place with various companies and eight have been shortlisted to receive a counterproposal from the state.

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