The Reform Party has turned into an unreliable and opportunistic partner for other parties. Recent events surrounding the coalition in Tallinn, and also the unexpected government reshuffle on Toompea this spring, show that the squirrel party's behavior toward its partners has become unpredictable – it is impossible to predict when the party will pull the rug out from under its coalition companions, or when it will once again come smilingly to seek an alliance.

One strongly gets the impression that for the Reform Party, current opportunistic calculations – namely, a desperate desire to improve its rating – outweigh everything else.

It is difficult for other parties to trust such a mercurial party. True, in politics there are no marriages of love, and replacing coalition partners for strategic reasons is entirely accepted and not held as a bad thing. However, a problem arises here: when a party repeatedly betrays its coalition allies, and does so based on seemingly illogical reasoning or purely on the basis of public opinion trends. This is possibly something the rest of the parties eventually will no longer tolerate.

Throughout its long history, the Reform Party has repeatedly replaced coalition partners, but almost always there has been understandable logic behind it, the move has been justified to the public, the entire operation carried out elegantly, and has ultimately resulted in a favorable outcome for the party.

Take for example the coalition reshuffle in 2014, when, a year before the elections, with the arrival of new Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas, Isamaa was replaced by the Social Democrats. It seemed entirely logical that with a new prime minister would come a new coalition. Additionally, by bringing freshness to the government, the Reform Party was able to maneuver itself into a much better position for the following year's elections. In short, everything was logical, effective, and justifiable to the public.

For the most part the same applied to the expulsion of the Center Party from Kaja Kallas' government, in the summer of 2022. Tensions between the two parties – and especially between their leaders, Kallas and Jüri Ratas – had long been simmering, and the Center Party was secretly planning to revive its former coalition with EKRE and Isamaa. Again, it was not difficult to justify this coalition change to the public and so to create a favorable narrative.

In looking at this year's coalition changes, however, it seems that the Reform Party is losing its earlier ability to maneuver and detect societal expectations.

The expulsion of the Social Democrats from the ruling coalition on Toompea might have had a certain basic logic, if it had resulted in a rise in the Reform Party's ratings and if the narrative that all the problems with the economy and taxes were caused by the Social Democrats had grown wings.

However, the squirrel party's ratings continued to languish, and to the public, the justifications behind the coalition change seemed forced and unconvincing.

Now the latest power struggle in Tallinn isn't even worth discussing, as there is no point looking for clarity for the public or effectiveness for the party involved, let alone political craftsmanship. Such a clumsy maneuver is hard to find even in the squirrel party's history.

The Reform Party members themselves probably believe that in this election cycle, they hold all the reins and can swap partners as they see fit. But this confidence is actually unfounded.

Isamaa is now even more cautious, lest the topic of governing again with Kristen Michal's Reform Party arise.

The Social Democrats certainly won't make fools of themselves again, in this election cycle, by seeking an alliance with the squirrels.

The Center Party saw that the Reform Party is far more volatile and unreliable than they had previously thought, and [party chair] Mihhail Kõlvart will think several times before tying himself to any agreements there.

If Eesti 200 does begin gradually to disintegrate after losses in the local elections, then at some point Michal will find himself at the head of a minority government. In that case, it would be unlikely that anyone will rush to help him share the responsibility of governing.

Not only as it would be strategically more beneficial for all other parties to let the Reform Party stew in its own juice as it were, until the end of the election cycle, but also because trust is evaporating.

When it comes time to form up coalitions after the 2027 [Riigikogu] elections, it is entirely possible that the Reform Party will be left out of the first round altogether. Not due to ideology, but due to it being an unpredictable and unreliable player.

Politics is known for being a team sport, and those players who will not respect certain unwritten rules are sometimes left on the bench to wait until they have learned the rules again.

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