Estonia consumes about 55,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) annually, and the market's estimated value is around €45 million. This year, the situation has shifted — according to Marti Hääl, CEO of fuels retailer Alexela, suspiciously cheap gas has started arriving in Estonia via Latvia.

"There's a price difference of around €100 per ton. From the consumer's perspective, that amounts to a 15–20 percent difference," Hääl said.

"And attempts to put pressure on the Latvians are unsuccessful. It's especially absurd when you consider that Latvia has a terminal importing from the West, where prices are 25 percent higher due to logistics costs, while the Russians are selling at a discount. That's why schemes are being used — there's a big margin to exploit," said economic expert Raivo Vare.

Since the sanctions took effect, Alexela has been importing LPG from Sweden and the United States.

"Western-oriented supply chains need a certain volume to get started, and once they do, they become sustainable," Hääl explained.

Potential losses could amount to millions of euros in the long term. But what can Estonian customs officials do when suspicious goods are coming not directly from Russia, but from a neighboring country to the south?

"The European Union's general principle is the free movement of goods within the EU, which is why sanction controls are carried out at the point when goods enter the EU," said Hannes Umborg, head of the customs procedures department at the Estonian Tax and Customs Board.

According to calculations by Alexela specialists, in the first few months of this year, Latvia's recorded exports of butane to Estonia tripled on paper.

"We won't comment on the company's own calculations. We've analyzed the flow of goods entering Estonia and haven't identified any major anomalies," said Umborg.

But how to explain such a significant increase in butane?

"I find it hard to believe that the statistical figure for butane is accurate — there's simply nowhere to store that much in Estonia. Most likely, the product codes are being manipulated rather creatively," Hääl noted.

"Since butane can indeed be declared under two different customs codes — one of which is sanctioned and the other not — we've informed neighboring customs authorities that this is a high-risk product category requiring thorough checks every time," said Umborg.

According to Vare, it's not enough for neighboring customs officials to carry out inspections; Estonia must do so too, even on a spot-check basis.

"There's no will to do it. But that's where it all starts. Once word gets out that spot checks are happening, things would change immediately," Vare said.

Meaningful change, however, would require action at the European Union level.

"We're well aware of the potential for sanctions evasion, and that's why, over the past year, we've pushed in the EU for a total import ban on LPG. This would involve adding the last remaining unsanctioned customs code to the list of prohibited goods. But since sanctions are adopted by EU consensus, opposition from some member states has blocked agreement," said Kadri Elias-Hindoalla, director of the Foreign Ministry's sanctions and strategic goods control division.

As a result, the burden of dealing with possible sanctions evasion continues to fall on the Baltic states and their businesses.

"My experience tells me that things only start moving when the issue is raised at the highest political level — literally at the level of presidents and prime ministers, not below, and publicly too," said Vare.

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