On Monday's edition of the radio morning show "Vikerhommik," Tarmo Jüristo, head of the NGO Liberaalne Kodanik (Liberal Citizen), said that the Reform Party's handling of the ongoing political crisis in Tallinn has been bungled — far from what one would expect from a party known for controlling its public narrative for years.

According to Jüristo, both the Reform Party and its rivals understand that the Center Party is likely to win the upcoming local elections in Tallinn.

"That's why it's important to position yourself ahead of the election in such a way that you're part of the city government afterward — whether with the Center Party or without. That's why parties are willing to sacrifice mandates to stay in power. It's a calculated move, but something has gone very wrong for the Reform Party," he said.

Jüristo expressed sympathy for Pärtel-Peeter Pere, the Reform Party's regional head in Tallinn, noting that while he seemed like a promising political figure a year ago, he now appears to the public "like a walking political corpse."

"In politics, people can come back to life multiple times — so this doesn't necessarily mean his political career is over. But we also know this [power shift in Tallinn] wasn't a solo act."

He pointed out that the Reform Party has historically been adept at keeping internal disputes behind closed doors. That's no longer the case.

"We're now clearly seeing and hearing that not everyone inside the party is happy with how things have played out in Tallinn," he said. "This disaster didn't come out of nowhere — you could hear it coming from miles away. Maybe someday we'll find out exactly who fell asleep at the wheel."

He added that Reform has traditionally been the party that steers the narrative — calling the media first and shaping public opinion proactively. "But this time they lost control. They started out with a whole slate of mayoral candidates who would have looked more credible to their voters. Now they've ended up on a path that's very difficult to reverse."

Jüristo speculated that the party's original strategy may have been to clip Jevgeni Ossinovski's wings, since he was more popular than Reform's own candidates.

"But now they've found themselves in a situation where, in the middle of summer, they're standing alone on stage with [businessman Urmas] Sõõrumaa, clutching their lingam, while everyone else pelts them with tomatoes," he said.

"Between now and the elections, the only things they'll be allowed to do in city government are what Mihhail Kõlvart generously permits. Since there won't be an official coalition or coalition agreement with the Center Party before the election, they can't demand anything from them either."

In Jüristo's view, the only person currently enjoying the situation is Mihhail Kõlvart, the Center Party's chair.

"He can go on ERR and shrug his shoulders, asking whether this is what city residents want. He gets to play the role of the apolitical mayor — even though he clearly isn't. But during this slow-motion train wreck of a circus, he's managing to pull it off. He gets to be the only adult in the room. For the Center Party, it's Christmas in June."

Still, Jüristo cautioned against underestimating the Reform Party's campaign machinery.

"Despite everything, they still have credibility on economic issues. The Business Advisory Council formed under the government was also part of an attempt to regain the initiative. So, this whole affair is a workplace accident — something that even professionals occasionally experience."

He also pointed out that Reform's voter base isn't a monolith.

"There's a core electorate that will forgive the party much more and tends to shape its views based on the party's stance. Then there's a group of opportunistic voters, who lean toward whichever party appeals to them at the moment — not the one they traditionally identify with. And I just can't see how this current situation could possibly win over that second group."

Although there's clear discontent within the party, Jüristo doesn't believe a mass exodus is imminent.

"But right now, the whole thing just looks incredibly amateurish."

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!