A relatively cool and rainy June in Estonia has created a situation where powerful low-pressure systems are forming over the Atlantic. Meanwhile, high-pressure areas have not managed to develop over Scandinavia and the British Isles, Paljak explained. At the same time, Central and Southern Europe remain under a stable high-pressure system, bringing with it intense heatwaves in those regions.

"As a result, we're getting a series of Atlantic low-pressure systems. The air masses coming in from the west are carrying a lot of moisture and are generally rather cool. That's why we have had such changeable weather here," Paljak noted.

June's first half was exceptionally rainy. In several parts of the country, precipitation totals had already surpassed the monthly average by mid-June.

In recent years, however, Junes in Estonia have tended to be hot and dry. The years 2019, 2020, and 2021 all had very warm Junes, and 2022 turned warm at the end of June.

"In recent years, we have had fairly warm summers, and everyone remembers last year's warm and dry May, but different kinds of summers do happen. We had a mild winter, and this might be the compensation," the meteorologist said.

"We worry a lot about climate warming, but at least now it's backing off a bit — maybe that's some small consolation," she joked.

Paljak pointed to 2012, 2015, and 2017 as examples of years with cool and rainy summers, noting that highly variable summers are by no means rare in Estonia.

Second half of summer could bring warm weather

Next Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be warmer, Paljak pointed out.

"Several models currently agree that Tuesday will bring 20–22 degrees Celsius, which is quite summery. On Wednesday, temperatures may rise to around 25 degrees. As for Thursday, the models already disagree," the meteorologist said.

According to different models, the midsummer heat may last only a few days, and the warmth will be short-lived. Toward the end of the week, the weather is expected to become changeable again.

Paljak is hesitant to make any predictions for the entire summer based on intuition, as in her view, the years are becoming increasingly unpredictable.

"When making forecasts, you can no longer rely as much on analog years, like 2012, 2015, or 2017. There could be a shift in the second week or third part of July, but it could also happen that the whole of July remains unstable. In that case, one could hope for summer warmth in August," she reflected.

"And even if we do not get a longer warm period lasting several weeks, we will likely still get some three-, four-, or even five-day stretches that are drier and warmer," she expressed with hope.

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