For nearly a month now, we've been watching the shadow play directed by Kristen Michal (Reform) in Tallinn, launched under the pretext of eliminating kindergarten fees. Even Reform Party voters, however, can see that the real reason lies in the party's declining rating. The political crisis triggered by Michal and [Tallinn Deputy Mayor] Pärtel-Peeter Pere (Reform) has produced few winners — chiefly the Center Party and EKRE — but many losers. And it seems that, in the long run, they themselves will be among the latter.

More Reform Party equals higher kindergarten fees

The Reform Party's populist kindergarten fees stunt is all the more absurd given that the municipalities they lead stand out for charging above-average fees. In Tallinn, the kindergarten fee was already reduced to €50 as of April 1, and it is entirely free for families with more than one child or for those with limited means. Meanwhile, in Tartu — governed by the Reform Party — the fee is €81, and in Rae municipality, it's as high as €133. There is not a single rational argument for why kindergarten places should be free only in the capital, where incomes are higher and the real issue is the shortage of nearby spots, not the cost of the fee.

It's notable that Reform Party MPs repeatedly voted down the Social Democrats' proposal in the Riigikogu to eliminate kindergarten fees in all municipalities across Estonia. They were not deterred by the fact that our amendment aligned with the Reform Party's own rhetoric — and that of Michal himself — that early childhood education should be freely accessible, just like other levels of education. Through their votes in the Riigikogu, the Reform Party made it clear even to the last remaining doubters that they are not genuinely interested in the issue of kindergarten fees. Their motives lie elsewhere.

Ratings, ratings, ratings

The driving force behind the current Reform Party leadership is polling numbers and fear of the upcoming elections. In the hope of boosting support, they recently dismantled the national government and are now taking another shot in the capital. But this is likely to be just as unsuccessful as the previous attempt, as the public can see through such political stunts. For some time now, it has seemed to me that the Reform Party's backroom strategists are underestimating voters, trying to fool them with tricks that may have worked ten years ago but no longer hold up in today's Estonia.

The political crisis staged by Michal and Pere has also disrupted the work of the entire city government and city council, while helping to foster the illusion that Tallinn cannot be governed without the Center Party. Still, the main aim of this campaign was to undermine Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski's (SDE) image, as polling shows Ossinovski is significantly more popular among Reform Party voters than any of their own potential mayoral candidates. Personal attacks were not off-limits for either Deputy Mayor Pere or Prime Minister Michal — though in his role, the latter ought to be focused on leading the country.

Michal needs Kõlvart's support

Michal's second objective is undoubtedly to strengthen the Reform Party's position both in the capital and, more importantly, on Toompea Hill. It's no secret that the Reform Party fears the collapse of Eesti 200 after the local elections, which would mean, at best, Michal leading a minority government, and at worst, facing a vote of no confidence in the Riigikogu. That's why finding a few extra votes is now of critical importance. And if all else fails, even the eight Riigikogu members from the Center Party, led by Kõlvart, will do. What we're seeing unfold is a classic quid pro quo: Kõlvart's Center Party returns to power in the capital on the condition that its Toompea MPs help keep Michal's government afloat.

The Reform Party's political puppet show is painfully transparent and illustrates the party's cynical approach to governing the country as a whole. At the same time, voters have grown more discerning and are increasingly able to see through such maneuvers. That's why I believe Michal's plan will neither boost the party's poll numbers nor restore the trust that's been lost. As a result of this stunt, they might secure a few mercy votes from the Center Party to hold on to the prime minister's seat until the 2027 Riigikogu elections — but after that, the inevitable end will still come.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!