Was Iran so cornered that it now had to attack U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq?

We're clearly seeing that this is part of the response Iran had promised after the U.S. directly intervened in the conflict in recent days. It appears to be a measured [response] — although nothing like it has ever happened before, especially in terms of an attack on Qatar or the U.S. air base located there specifically.

On the other hand, we know that four or five days ago, the base was emptied out — virtually all aircraft had been removed, and the personnel were no longer there. That means there was a very clear expectation in diplomatic circles that an attack of this nature might take place.

It's also important that Qatar and Iran have relatively good relations. Iran's prime minister visited Doha in May, and right after the war began on June 13, the Qatari foreign minister met with the Iranian ambassador in Doha. These are countries that are in no way at war with each other.

So how much of this attack was really about a counterstrike for Iran?

Part of it is theater. It's a chance for Iran to issue a robust response, after which they have the opportunity to deescalate. Qatar, in essence, has the capacity to absorb such an attack on its territory. If we look at Qatar's diplomatic channels — in the days leading up to this, they've been very quiet.

We know that if Qatar is genuinely concerned and in the dark, it's very much capable of making this fact loudly known on the international stage. We saw this in 2017, when they were under an economic blockade by their neighbors — nothing like that has happened this time. Which means they were actually prepared for this [attack].

Now the question is what happens next — what will the United States do? Instinct tells me the U.S. will hold back for now and avoid getting pulled deeper into this conflict.

Would that be the logical course of action?

I think it's logical from the U.S. perspective, because their recent experiences with wars in the Middle East have all been bad. The American public also still vividly remembers the wars in Iraq. And we know that the next step beyond this — which is already being discussed today — would be regime change in Tehran.

The Middle East doesn't offer many good examples of successful regime change without unleashing chaos that's impossible to contain. Think of post-Gaddafi Libya, think of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. All of that has been very painful for the Americans in hindsight.

So yes, the U.S. will hold back for now — but it's possible U.S. experts see it differently.

On the other hand — and this is the bigger concern that we should be thinking about today — we don't actually know what Israel wants. Israel's goals have shifted over time; its ambitions have grown steadily.

On June 13, when the war [with Iran] began with airstrikes on Iranian territory, the talk was about Iranian nuclear facilities and nuclear capabilities. Now, airstrikes are being carried out against the institutions of another state, and now all those war hawks there who were whispering last year that Iran must be dealt a decisive blow are loudly declaring that Iran's regime must be toppled.

In other words, Israel's vision and ambitions in terms of how this conflict should end are unknown and unpredictable [to us].

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