The restriction of voting rights in local elections is beginning to bear fruit, but not the kind the bill's initiators likely intended. According to recent Norstat polls, support for the Center Party among the Russian-speaking population has risen again to nearly 70 percent — a level last seen in 2019. In other words, thanks in part to the generous help of its competitors, the Center Party has emerged from its recent crisis and ethnic-based voting in Estonian politics is once again nearing the levels seen during the days of Edgar Savisaar.

So, what happened? After the leadership change in 2023 and the internal crisis that followed, the Center Party's support took a serious dive — even among Russian-speaking voters, only about 50 percent of citizens backed the party. For instance, in January 2024, when a significant portion of the party's top Estonian-speaking politicians left, even Russian voters began to seriously doubt the party's future, and its rating dropped to a record low — around 32 percent. Based on these trends, it seemed that the era of a single party monopolizing the support of one ethnic group in Estonia was gradually coming to an end.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, it had been evident that some Russian voters were occasionally considering supporting EKRE, especially during moments when the party's leaders made statements that closely mirrored Kremlin talking points. Last year, it even seemed that the Social Democrats had a real chance of becoming a viable option among Russian speakers — playing the role of internal opposition within Kaja Kallas' government earned them points with that segment of voters. Even though support for both of these parties rarely exceeded 20 percent, political choices among Russian-speaking voters were beginning to diversify.

But that came to a sudden halt. Since January of this year, and especially starting in February, when the Riigikogu began seriously debating restrictions on voting rights, support for the Center Party among Russian-speaking voters has surged almost vertically, and support for any alternatives now barely crosses the 10 percent threshold. So, as I mentioned earlier, ethnic-based voting is back. Even if we're still a bit short of the 80–90 percent support levels of the Savisaar era, it now seems that the Center Party needn't worry for some time about Russian voters glancing in the direction of other parties.

Why is this happening? One need only recall the results of the March 26 Riigikogu vote on restricting voting rights — the Center Party was the only one to vote against the bill. The message to the Russian-speaking population could not have been clearer: only the Center Party stands up for their rights in critical moments; the other parties cannot be trusted.

It's also worth noting that these polls measure support among Estonian citizens. The warnings of experts have come true: Russian-speaking people are not reacting to voting rights restrictions based solely on their own citizenship status. Instead, they look at their family members, friends and relatives, and perceive the entire initiative as a form of ethnically targeted collective punishment. Many of them struggle to understand what they have done wrong to deserve, as a group, the revocation of such important political rights — rights they have held for over 30 years.

The main mechanism behind ethnic-based voting and the Center Party's monopolistic position is the lack of alternatives. Over the past 30 years, Russian voters have not been offered a real range of political choices: Kremlin-aligned and radical Russian parties have fortunately failed to gain a foothold in our political landscape, while Estonian-speaking parties have yet to master the high-wire act of convincing voters that they represent both Russian and Estonian interests. EKRE, the Social Democrats and Eesti 200 — they've all tried, only to stumble or end up caught in a bind.

As long as the Center Party faces no serious competition for the Russian niche, any attempt to restrict the rights of the Russian minority will only benefit them. It appears that the chance to diversify political choices in this voter segment has now been postponed again — possibly for years. Surely, this was not the outcome the authors of the constitutional amendment and the voting rights restriction were aiming for. On the contrary, they were likely hoping to achieve the exact opposite effect.

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