Over the past year and a half, we at Kantar Emor have been measuring the confidence levels and outlook for the future among people in Estonia. Confidence — or the lack thereof — is not merely an emotional state but a clear indicator of a society's overall well-being.

To better understand what is causing people to feel uncertain, since March we have included a recurring question in each wave of our survey, asking Estonian residents which factors are currently contributing most to their sense of insecurity. At the same time, it's important to recognize that a rapidly changing world means rapidly shifting priorities — what feels like a pressing issue today may quickly fade into the background tomorrow.

Financial coping

Estonian households are overshadowed by a strong sense of pessimism: more than half believe their family's financial situation will worsen over the next 12 months. Only one in ten expects any improvement.

This financial uncertainty is further underscored by the fact that the most frequently mentioned source of insecurity is the cost of living and rising prices. In a survey conducted in May, 52 percent of respondents cited the cost of living and price increases as the main cause of their sense of insecurity. The issue was mentioned particularly often by those who do not trust either Estonian or international institutions — in that group, the figure was 68 percent.

Security: Russia and deepening anxiety

Estonian residents who trust both national and international institutions — such as NATO and the European Union — most frequently pointed to a different source of insecurity: Russia and Vladimir Putin. Among them, 52 percent named this as one of their two main sources of uncertainty. Across the general population, 30 percent consider Russia to be one of the primary causes of insecurity. Separately, one in ten also specifically mentioned Estonia's national security.

While price pressure is immediate and part of daily life, geopolitical uncertainty creates a deeper and more lasting sense of unease. Russia has always been a significant factor in Estonia's security discourse, but since February 2022 it has become a constant source of anxiety. The war in Ukraine continues and hope that Trump might quickly resolve the situation has faded.

This year, we also conducted a national defense survey for the Ministry of Defense. The results show that people in Estonia tend to view the future as insecure. Globally, Russia's attempts to reassert its influence over neighboring countries are seen as the greatest threat. Against this backdrop, nearly half of the population supports increasing Estonia's defense spending.

Conflict of values

This reveals a contradictory situation: on one hand, there is a desire to strengthen national defense, which requires resources; on the other, people feel personal financial pressure and are therefore opposed to tax increases. Our society is facing a conflict of values — we understand that freedom and security are not guaranteed and require substantial investment, but at the same time, we cannot ignore the fact that prices, tax burdens and electricity bills have a direct impact on people's everyday lives.

Confidence does not return overnight, nor solely through lines in the budget, but it can be rebuilt. This requires transparent policymaking, communication that fosters trust and a recognition that a state's strength begins with an individual's sense of security — at home, at work and in society at large. At present, public trust in the government is weak and the prevailing sentiment is that the government is not acting in the best interest of the people. But in the relationship between the state and its citizens, responsibility lies with both sides. People must also be willing to take responsibility: they should try to understand the reasoning behind decisions before dismissing them out of hand.

A secure future lies not only in improved economic indicators or geopolitical stability but also in our ability to rebuild trust and a shared sense of purpose. We must engage in open dialogue and seek common ground, not just division. One of the key strengths of Estonian society has always been our ability to stand together in difficult times.

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