The sharpest divides in Estonian residents' attitudes toward foreign policy emerge on questions related to Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, particularly between ethnic Estonians and ethnic Russians, according to the results of a poll commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and conducted by pollster Turu-uuringute AS this April.

Support for the statement that Ukraine should not make any concessions to Russia was expressed by 74 percent of ethnic Estonians, compared to just 19 percent of ethnic Russians. Conversely, far more Russian-speaking respondents supported statements suggesting that Ukraine should make concessions. For instance, 58 percent of Russian speakers (compared to 14 percent of Estonians) believed Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia. Similarly, 45 percent of Russian-speaking respondents (versus 7 percent of Estonians) said Ukraine should give up all territories currently under Russian control. More than half of the Russian respondents — 52 percent — felt Ukraine should abandon its aspirations to join the European Union and NATO and instead declare neutrality, while only 13 percent of Estonians agreed. When it came to NATO's presence in Eastern Europe, 39 percent of Russian speakers believed the alliance should end its military presence and exercises in Estonia and other countries in the region, in line with long-standing Russian demands. Just 6 percent of Estonian respondents shared that view.

A similar divide appeared on the question of whether Estonia should send its troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission. Among Estonians, 57 percent supported deploying troops alongside allies after the war to help secure Ukraine's future, compared to only 11 percent of Russian-speaking respondents. On the other hand, 68 percent of Russians opposed sending Estonian troops to Ukraine under any circumstances, while 27 percent of Estonians said the same.

Differences also emerged in perceptions of Estonia's current support for Ukraine. Seventy percent of Estonians said Estonia's aid was sufficient, 4 percent believed it was too little and 22 percent felt the country was offering too much. Among Russian speakers, the numbers were nearly reversed: 70 percent thought Estonia was giving too much support, 25 percent said the current level was adequate and almost none believed the country was doing too little.

More specific questions about aid revealed similar contrasts. While 16 percent of Estonians said Estonia should limit its support to humanitarian aid, that view was shared by 51 percent of Russian speakers. Just 5 percent of Estonians felt Estonia should not assist Ukraine at all, compared to 20 percent of Russian respondents.

When asked whether they would personally be willing to support Ukraine's reconstruction, 29 percent of Estonians said no, while 66 percent of Russian speakers were opposed. Economic status may partly explain the disparity. Among those facing financial hardship, willingness to help Ukraine was generally lower. According to the survey, 43 percent of Russian speakers reported struggling to make ends meet, compared to 21 percent of Estonians. At the same time, a comfortable income level was reported by 20 percent of Estonians but only 5 percent of Russian respondents.

The two groups also differed on defense spending. Among Estonians, 41 percent supported increasing defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, 34 percent considered the current level of 3.5 percent sufficient, 13 percent wanted it lowered to 2 percent and 5 percent favored reducing it even further. Among Russian speakers, 37 percent favored maintaining spending at 2 percent, 34 percent wanted it reduced below 2 percent, 17 percent felt the current level was adequate and only 6 percent supported increasing it to 5 percent of GDP.

Attitudes toward EU-wide defense financing showed a similar split. A majority of Estonians — 55 percent — supported EU member states jointly borrowing to strengthen defense capabilities, while 29 percent were opposed. Among Russian speakers, only 14 percent supported the idea and 70 percent were against it.

Another area of disagreement was the handling of economic relations with Russia. Fifty-three percent of Estonians said trade with Russia should be reduced to a minimum, using not only EU sanctions but also Estonia's own restrictions. Just 7 percent of Russian speakers agreed. On the other hand, 41 percent of Russian respondents said Estonia should seek to expand economic cooperation with Russia, while only 6 percent of Estonians supported that position.

A similar divergence appeared in views on sanctions. Forty percent of Russian speakers said Estonia should work to ease sanctions on Russia, while only 5 percent of Estonians felt the same. Meanwhile, 62 percent of Estonians supported imposing additional sanctions, compared to just 8 percent of Russian respondents.

The topic of EU enlargement revealed one of the clearest gaps in perspective. A majority of Russian-speaking respondents — 57 percent — opposed Ukraine's EU membership, while 79 percent of Estonians supported it. The divide was even sharper regarding NATO: 75 percent of Estonians supported Ukraine's NATO accession, whereas 71 percent of Russian speakers were opposed.

When asked about individual EU candidate countries, Russian-speaking respondents tended to be more supportive of Orthodox Slavic nations, such as Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, and least supportive of Kosovo, Albania and Ukraine. Estonian respondents, on the other hand, most strongly favored EU membership for Ukraine and Moldova.

Ethnic differences also emerged in attitudes toward the People's Republic of China. Sixty-eight percent of Russian speakers considered China a partner, compared to just 32 percent of Estonians. Meanwhile, 35 percent of Estonians viewed China as a threat, a view held by only 3 percent of Russian respondents.

Another area of significant divergence was in views on trade diplomacy. When asked what principles should guide Estonia's support for businesses entering foreign markets, 58 percent of Estonians said promoting core values should be the priority. They felt Estonia should not encourage cooperation with authoritarian regimes or countries that disregard fundamental values. Only 22 percent of Russian speakers agreed with that approach. In contrast, 51 percent of Russian-speaking respondents said Estonia should prioritize economic growth, even if it means promoting business ties with authoritarian states, a view shared by 23 percent of Estonians.

The survey was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS from April 2 to 13 through a combination of online and phone interviews. Eighty percent of the responses were collected online and 20 percent via telephone. A total of 1,010 residents of Estonia aged 15 and older participated.

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