Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) has been trying to flag a crisis of leadership and incompetence, and the Reform Party's flailing within the Tallinn coalition is meant to create the conditions that lend credibility to this narrative. The target is also Tallinn Mayor Jevgeni Ossinovski's (SDE) status as a leader.

To start off, I have to apologize that the following opinion piece is focused on political technology to an unseemly extent. Life has provided me with the opportunity to become familiar with Kristen Michal's mindset, something I cannot alter. The first act in rescuing the Reform Party was throwing the Social Democrats out of government and blaming them for everything. This was meant to bring success with it, namely, a rise in ratings, but that hasn't materialized.

Now the second act is being performed, in a state of panic, in the city of Tallinn. Disputes in Tallinn city governance have resulted in the SDE mayor, Jevgeni Ossinovski, becoming the most popular mayoral candidate among Reform Party supporters. Both SDE and the Reform Party have seen these survey results.

Of course, [Reform deputy mayor] Pärtel-Peeter Pere cannot afford to lose in the elections, as to do so would cost him not only his leadership position in the party organization, but also his political career outlook. And being overshadowed by Ossinovski is an even greater concern for Prime Minister Kristen Michal.

The Reform Party chair needs to secure his position as the candidate for prime minister in the next parliamentary elections. Certainly, the great work by the mayor of Tallinn is not the real issue. The reason is the Reform Party's persistently low rating.

The previous elections brought 37 Reform Party members into the Riigikogu, with two more added since (due to defections – ed.). Add to that eight ministers... In total, 47 top politicians, all of whom want a return to big politics through the elections. Each percentage point in the polls translates to one Riigikogu seat.

According to the latest Norstat poll, the "squirrel party" (Reform's nickname, deriving from their logo – ed.) would win 18 seats at elections.

Kristen Michal knows that if more than half of the party's top politicians face being left without a Riigikogu seat, it would be the biggest bloodletting in Estonian political party history. In a situation like that, there will be plenty who want to boost the party's rating with a new, more popular party chairman — for example, someone like [defense minister] Hanno Pevkur.

With that, Michal cannot afford to lose these local elections; this would only cement his image as a loser. That is also why the prime minister himself tries to refer to a leadership crisis, to incompetence, etc., in as many statements as possible. The Reform Party's flailing in the Tallinn coalition has to create the ground for this narrative to seem believable. The target is Ossinovski's reliability as a leader.

Putting SDE in a bind

Naturally, abolishing kindergarten fees is not the Reform Party's real goal — it's just the best way of trapping SDE. The Reform Party badly needed a theme that would make them visible in Tallinn and which the SDE mayor would find hard to dispute.

Cynically, children were chosen. Brazenness and cunning on this level suggest much more experience in politics than Pere actually has.
SDE of course support the abolition of kindergarten fees, and will certainly take advantage of the opportunity.

But Ossinovski knows well that changes to the supplementary budget alone are not enough. Sources of funding need to be found, and relevant regulations need to be changed. By rushing in without thought, competitors could flip the story into one of poor city governance. Therefore, the mayor has had to look for solutions in a balanced way.

Michal and Kõlvart's flirtation

There could still be a split in Eesti 200 before the next parliamentary elections. A coalition with 52 votes would lose its majority at the Riigikogu if just two people left, and then the Reform Party chair would lose the post of prime minister.

At such a juncture, the Center Party could become Kristen Michal's only way to maintain his position. Center Party chair Mihhail Kõlvart asks for just one thing in return: Power in the capital.

To the outside observer, the similar amendment proposals from the Center and Reform parties may seem a coincidence — but in reality, this is the beginning of a hesitant relationship. Whether the relationship is set to develop quickly or is just a warm-up, that I do not know. We'll see.

From a political technology standpoint, Michal is still sharp, but I cannot find it acceptable to cynically exploit the needs of children and their parents. I can allow myself this criticism, because, on Wednesday, the coalition voted down the SDE amendment proposal to abolish kindergarten fees nationwide across Estonia, during the supplementary budget reading at the Riigikogu.

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