Since 2021, irregular migrants from Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere have been crossing the EU's border in high numbers via Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

At the moment, the situation is escalating. The number of migrants attempting to cross into the EU this year is almost the same as in 2024, Kublickis said. As of June 11, there have been 4,979 attempts – between 65-70 people a day – compared with approximately 5,000 last year. April and May were particularly intense.

Estonia has sent two rotations of PPA officers this year, following a request from Latvia.

"The guys who are coming are working shoulder to shoulder with our border guards, and they are basically fulfilling the same tasks as some Latvian border guards. That shows how united [we are] nowadays – we have to be," said Kublickis, who was in Tallinn for a conference last week.

In recent months, the border guards say they have seen an uptick in violent behavior, with migrants throwing sticks and stones. It was requested that the PPA teams have experience with crowd control.

A "special regime" is in place on the Latvia-Belarus border that grants the authorities additional powers and sends migrants back to Belarus. Fencing has already been erected along 150 kilometers of the border, including through bogs.

Kublickis said approximately 2,000 illegal attempts are made to cross the border each month and the figure is expected to remain this high. "The migratory flow will not disappear, and we understand this, and we are ready for that," he said.

Criminal business

The authorities say the migration route is manufactured by the Belarusian regime with support from Moscow. The flow started after the EU slapped sanctions on the Minsk regime following a crackdown on peaceful protesters and the May 2021 forced diversion of a RyanAir flight which was carrying a dissident on board. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko swore revenge. Then the migrants started arriving at the border.

Before the crisis, Kublickis said there were no more than a dozen recorded illegal attempts to cross the border each year.

"Our neighbors were doing their job very well and their territory along the border is very strictly controlled on their side. And suddenly we have hundreds of people walking along the fence and they are not doing anything," he said.

"Then it's our problem that we have to think about how to prevent people from crossing the border. Even though we are informing them, 'please, there are people on your side, do something,' there is no response."

Kublickis calls it a hybrid attack and says border crossers are being used as "weapons" and "tools" by the Minsk regime.

Interviews carried out with migrants by the Latvian border guards have revealed there are two migration flows, one from each capital. The security services also gather their own information. 

"People are coming to see Minsk as 'tourists' – because it's such a great place –from India, Pakistan and Africa," he said, sarcastically. While those coming from Russia have been in the country a long time, often illegally, and are then taken in groups to the Latvian border.

In recent years, the main pressure on the border has been split between Poland and Latvia, with Latvia seeing a surge in the spring and summer. Kublickis said the weather plays a part, adding that migrants started trying to enter earlier this year due to the mild winter.

Migrants are guided to the border in groups and, in some cases, the wire fence is cut and then people are pushed through. Sometimes it is also sealed up behind them, so they cannot get back. Kublickis said it is difficult to tell exactly which of the Belarusian authorities are responsible, as they do not wear insignia.

"That's a criminal business. The thing to emphasize is that it's not a regular migration," he said.

Pushbacks vs prevention

The "special regime" in place along the Latvian-Belarusian border grants border guards the power to "prevent" migrants from entering the country. This means they can be denied the right to submit an asylum claim when they cross the border and be sent straight back. This is also known as "pushbacks" and is illegal under international law.

Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have all been criticized for using the technique by human rights groups. Estonia legalized the practice in 2022, pre-emptively, in case the crisis moved north.

Kublickis said the Latvian authorities use the term "prevent," not "pushback."

On the criticism Latvia has received, Kublickis said: "Everybody has their own job to do. We are thinking about the security of the state and Europe, and somebody is thinking about human rights, and there has to be a balance."

He stressed again that this is not "regular migration."

"Security is a priority for us, and we are border guards; we are responsible for the security of our state of public order and the security of our citizens," the official said.

While the majority of people have been stopped from entering the country, a small number of people have been allowed to submit a claim for international protection.

There are also reports that the Belarusian border guards are abusive towards the migrants. Kublickis said it is difficult to know. He said groups often tend to tell the same story,

'It shows that they're basically being briefed what to say. It means that somebody guided them. We had cases when the migrants were informing us that they were beaten, their money was stolen, their jewelry and everything was stolen. So the stories are different, but it's very difficult to find out what the reality is behind it," he said.

Last year, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina said people smugglers on the Belarus border are getting "smarter." Kublickis agreed and called them "creative." In recent months, the border guard has stopped vehicles decorated to look like police, state border guard and public transport vans but which are found to be transporting migrants.

European-wide problem

Over the years, the demographic of people trying to cross the border illegally has changed. While in the first summer there were a lot of women and families among the groups, Kublickis said it is now "98 percent" single men.

Whereas several years ago, migrants were mostly from the Middle East, last summer the majority were from India and Pakistan, while this year this has shifted to Africa. "It's not a secret that we know there were special flights organized, like regular tourist flights from certain regions," the official said.

In April, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he had invited 150,000 workers from Pakistan to Belarus to fill the labor shortage. However, this "raises alarm bells across neighboring European Union states," RFE/RL reported.

"There's a very high risk that those tourists or laborers that he's inviting will appear at our borders," Kublickis said.

Speaking about the situation in general, he stressed the issue does not just affect Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. These countries are just dealing with it "face-to-face."

Kublickis pointed out that few migrants plan to stay in the Baltic states after they cross the border. Smugglers cash in by moving them on to Germany, France or Scandinavian countries. Some have tried to cross the channel to the U.K. in small boats. Estonia is mainly used as a transit country, but the PPA must direct additional resources to checking vehicles at the southern border and ports to Finland.

"It's important to have a regional approach to tackling this kind of situation. Today we are the ones who are facing this kind of situation. /.../ [But] you never know what happens in the next stages," he said.

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