This year, the Estonian Internal Security Service (KAPO) marks its 105th anniversary. Like the Republic of Estonia itself, KAPO has navigated significant shifts over the years. There have been times when it existed merely in name, serving as a symbol of the enduring value of freedom. Despite the challenges, the principal threat to Estonia's internal security has remained consistent: Russia.

Regardless of its public rhetoric, Russia is actively working to dismantle Europe's security architecture and carve out a privileged sphere of influence where NATO would be forced to withdraw. Russia considers Estonia to be part of this desired sphere of influence. Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has now entered its fourth year. In addition to Russia's visible military presence in Ukraine, a covert aspect of its armed forces operates throughout Europe.

In 2024, a series of arson attacks, vandalism, sabotage and attempted sabotage were carried out across Europe, all under the guidance of Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU. Through these hybrid operations, Russia aims to destabilize Europe and weaken the collective resolve to support Ukraine.

However, Russia has miscalculated – such attacks do not undermine Europe but instead reinforce Western unity and resolve to continue support for Ukraine

Hybrid warfare represents the initial phase of any military attack. KAPO works to anticipate and prevent non-military threats to safeguard the state against any potential military threats arising

The future security landscape will be shaped by developments in Ukraine, particularly regarding whether peace is achieved and the conditions surrounding it. One certainty is that any peace agreement in Ukraine will not diminish the threats to Estonia's internal security. Once Russia can redirect its resources, it is likely to focus on other hostile activities. Potential threats include the illegal flow of weapons into Europe, which could end up in the hands of criminals or extremists. Additionally, Russian combatants returning from the front lines may also seek new "missions" in extremist organisations or criminal networks.

Russia's intelligence interest in Estonia remains consistent. In 2024, five individuals associated with the GRU were brought to court. Since the start of Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, Estonia has revoked 15 residence permits for national security reasons, based on recommendations from KAPO.

In 2023, approximately ten individuals were arrested in connection with acts of vandalism against monuments and vehicles carried out under orders from Russia; they were convicted in 2024. Last year, the threat of similar attacks remained high. One such incident, instigated by Russia, occurred in Tartu, where a vehicle with Ukrainian licence plates was set on fire.

The Kremlin's support base in Estonia, primarily consisting of older residents, is in decline. As a result, Russia is shifting its influence operations towards younger Russian-speaking Estonians. It is essential that we protect these young people from being swayed by Russian propaganda.

As Kremlin-controlled media faces increasing restrictions, Russian propaganda efforts have shifted to social media. We are observing a rise in deepfakes and manipulations driven by artificial intelligence and algorithms. Social media shapes people's perceptions of the world and determines the information bubbles into which users are funnelled. As a result, users can become trapped in echo chambers or disinformation loops, with increasingly limited ability to verify what they see. Critical thinking remains the only reliable antidote to this issue. The Estonian education system rightly prioritises the teaching of critical thinking and media literacy.

Violent extremism seeks to attract young people online, transcending national borders and age groups. Lonely individuals who have faced difficult childhoods and seek a sense of belonging may find their way to extremist ideology when offered a compelling message. These messages often spread across multiple platforms and are quickly translated into many languages. For terrorist organisations, as well as for the Kremlin, disseminating propaganda is equally important as conducting attacks.

Recent amendments to Estonia's Information Society Services Act enable more decisive intervention against harmful content. However, we must also develop a comprehensive action plan to prevent radicalisation. The government must closely monitor hostile influence operations and violent extremist propaganda on social media. Although the threat of terrorism in Estonia remains low, even one attack would be unacceptable.

Virtual currencies are being used more frequently, not just for legitimate investments but as a key payment method in criminal activities. These activities include financing terrorism, carrying out hostile intelligence operations, conducting cyberattacks involving ransom demands, and engaging in organised crime. Innovation and digital payment technologies present new challenges for Estonia's law enforcement agencies and its financial sector. Key issues include the need for legislative updates, increased risk awareness among service providers, effective implementation of due diligence measures and consistent efforts from law enforcement. As technology advances and cyber threats become more complex, cybersecurity is playing an increasingly vital role. 

Today's security environment presents growing challenges and higher demands for KAPO, which is responsible for monitoring and preventing threats before they can harm Estonian society.

Raising awareness is crucial for effective prevention. In 2024, KAPO conducted numerous security training sessions and briefings, reaching nearly 2,000 officials and employees across various sectors. A strong collective front is essential – one that unites all Estonian residents, national security agencies, and partners both at home and abroad.

Much of KAPO's work as a security agency is hidden from adversaries and the general public. However, our activities remain fully transparent to the relevant oversight bodies, including the Prosecutor's Office, the courts, the Ministry of the Interior, the Government of the Republic, the Parliamentary Select Committee on the Supervision of Security Authorities, the Chancellor of Justice and the National Audit Office.

While external oversight is essential, our internal culture and procedures ensure that our operations are lawful and in line with the highest standards of professional ethics, sound judgement and Estonia's national security interests. We recognize the responsibility that comes with the powers entrusted to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding the fundamental rights of Estonian residents.

The world is currently in turmoil, facing numerous threats and security challenges. Largely due to Russia's actions, further deterioration of the security environment in our region is a real possibility. Nevertheless, we can confidently affirm that Estonia is a safe country that continues to grow stronger every year.

Through close cooperation with domestic and international partners, KAPO will continue its efforts to ensure that Estonia remains secure and stable.

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