Is raising defense spending to 5% of GDP enough to protect Estonia?

On Tuesday, the government confirmed defense spending will rise to at least 5 percent of GDP from 2026. But will this extra funding, totaling hundreds of millions of euros, be enough to meet the needs of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF)?
At last week's press conference, it was implied that the threat assessment has risen to such a point that, for the first time, the EDF's requests will be fully met. There is no room for further delays.
"So far, all military advice I have provided has been taken into account by the government, and solutions have been sought to implement them. The discussion about percentages is indicative because I do not talk in percentages, I talk about capabilities that are needed, based on which calculations are made to determine the cost," said EDF Commander Maj. Gen. Andrus Merilo.
Defense spending may rise above 5 percent in the coming years. Estonia is allocating far more than NATO's target of 2 percent.
Former Air Force Commander Jaak Tarien said big procurements are being made.
"In the development of the Defense Forces, I see that we have now reached the stage where we are making the most resource-intensive procurements in the past 30 years. We have established the basic needs and are making some of the most resource-demanding acquisitions — air defense, air protection, which is very expensive, various land maneuver capabilities, naval capabilities. All of these, which have remained unfulfilled until now, have essentially been held back due to a lack of resources," he told the show.

The plans being put into action have been discussed within the EDF – and publically – for some time. Merilo said developing layered air defense is the biggest priority. The war in Ukraine has proved this.
"Ukraine has been successful, but the attacks are so massive that even if 10–15 percent get through, the damage is already significant and impacts the functioning of society," he said.
Tarien said some of these plans are already in motion.
"The medium-range procurement has been signed, and capabilities are on their way. I have also heard from internal sources that long-range air defense is being considered. This need primarily stems from lessons learned in the war in Ukraine, where glide bombs have caused great damage to Ukrainian forces," he added.
Deep-strike capabilities are being proposed in tandem. This will allow Estonia to destroy enemy missile launchers and aircraft on Russian territory from a distance. While Moscow has learned from the war in Ukraine to move its assets further back, Merilo, certain systems will remain within Estonia's attack range.
"The reason we started developing deep-strike capability earlier was that it can be implemented more quickly, and we have already reached a level of training where we can execute these operations. We have repeatedly practiced them. Air defense has always been a priority as well. Today, we have already completed the procurement for the arrival of medium-range air defense, which will soon be delivered. However, based on lessons from the war in Ukraine, the current quantities are insufficient — this is the honest truth today," the commander said in an interview following Friday's announcement.

While missiles are extremely important, other elements are also needed for an effective attack. Tarien highlights intelligence, as it provides a comprehensive situational overview.
"Only then can all these capabilities be used effectively. For instance, it would be a huge waste of resources to use long-range missiles, which cost millions, on Shahed drones that cost just tens of thousands," he said.
Lessons from the war in Ukraine also highlight the need to develop drone capabilities. This includes FPV drones, attack drones, and reconnaissance drones. As technology can become obsolete in a matter of days, it is not practical to stockpile large quantities. Instead, production contracts could be signed for times of crisis.
"Buying thousands of drones for storage would indeed be wasteful. If they can be modified with electronics, some initial stockpile should be available for immediate use, but the key is technical know-how," Tarien said.
For the Navy, additional funding means more than just new ships. It also requires an evaluation of how existing vessels can be utilized more effectively.
Former Navy Commander Jüri Saska stressed the first step should be to retain mine countermeasure vessels. This is not only a well-developed capability but also one of the few allied contributions Estonia can make far from home.
He does not specify the size or quantity of new ships, instead, Saska emphasized the importance of equipping them with various capabilities, from surface-to-surface missiles to possibly even air defense. The Navy must also shift its focus to new technologies.

"Presence is key, and we need platforms capable of ensuring that. Certainly, it is possible to reduce the number of ships, but at the same time, new technological solutions — such as flying drones or perhaps even surface drones and different sensor systems — can support and expand operational reach," Saska explained.
New technology can also simplify ship operations, reducing the number of crew members required on board. However, this does not mean that the overall number of Navy personnel will drop. Instead, new personnel with completely different skill sets will be needed.
"Perhaps we will not need as many big, strong sailors, but we will need more people with thick glasses — boys and girls who have studied a lot, read a lot, and understand how ones and zeros move through the wires," Saska said.
Capability development across the EDF will require additional training and an increase in personnel. Five hundred vacant positions need filling immediately. Changes will also be made to the length and structure of conscription.
"The current conscription model is nearly 20 years old, with only minor adjustments over the years. It was appropriate for the previous security environment but is no longer adequate. Conscripts themselves have told me that they would like to contribute more to actual combat readiness," Merilo said.
The commander said challenging times are slowly turning into dangerous times for Estonia. At the same time, it is clear that higher defense spending does not immediately translate into increased capabilities. Ammunition and equipment deliveries take time, sometimes even years.
"Depending on how the situation evolves and what we observe in Ukraine — whether there is a ceasefire, changes in Russia's military actions — there may be cases where some things need to be accelerated, while others can be postponed. This is more about marking and securing resources. As the commander of the Defense Forces, I naturally understand that additional resource requirements put pressure on society, but I cannot allow that to become a limitation," Merilo said
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Helen Wright
Source: Aktuaalne kaamera. Nadal