Elron's passenger decline on the Tallinn-Tartu mainline is deemed by the company to be exceptional and is put down to railroad repairs, according to a company representative.

Elron is being subsidized by the state to the tune of €36.5 million, but faces budget cuts next year.

Company spokesperson Kristo Mäe attributed the drop in passenger numbers to this summer's closure of the Balti jaam station in Tallinn.

In July 2023, Elron reported its Tallinn-Tartu and Tartu-Tallinn passenger numbers stood at 90,552, compared with 69,370 this July, excluding a few minor routes.

While the closure, due to renovation work, lasted just under a week, this was enough to cut the total number of train passengers across all routes by nearly 50,000, he said.

Mäe cited as another factor ongoing rail repair work and electrification between Tapa/Tamsalu and Tartu.

This has necessitated replacement buses for an average of six days out of every month.

In addition, since July, war refugees have been no longer eligible for free travel on Elron trains.

In general, a decline was seen here too this year: Whereas in October 2023, Elron reported 96,082 passengers traveling between Estonia's two largest cities, compared with 76,467 in October this year.

As to whether prices will rise at the start of 2025, Mäe said: "It is currently difficult to say anything definitive about next year's ticket prices, as discussions with the ministry regarding service volumes and the 2025 budget are still in progress."

At the same time, traveling between Tallinn and Tartu by bus is becoming more competitive.

Train ticket prices for the Tallinn-Tartu route are generally higher than bus fares, with a regular Saturday train on November 24 costing €12.90 (€12.26 online) for standard class, €14.73 for first class, and €8.55 for a discounted ticket.

The Elron express train from Tallinn to Tartu costs €16.40 in standard class (€15.58 online), €18.53 in first class, and €10.93 discounted, while Lux Express bus tickets for the same route range from €10-15, both taking around two and a half hours.

Train passenger figures on the Tallinn-Tartu route remain higher than bus passengers, but the gap is closing.

Lux Express reported 591,000 passengers on the Tallinn-Tartu route in the first ten months of this year, up from 483,000 last year; between October 2023 and October 2024, figures rose from 56,000 to 66,000.

Lux Express CEO Ingmar Roos highlighted that railway construction has boosted bus passenger numbers, with Lux Express adding 1,000 weekly seats on the Tallinn-Tartu route to meet growing demand.

Some competitors, such as Taisto Liinid and MK Autobuss, offer even cheaper fares on the same route, with discounted tickets at €5.50 and three departures priced at €9-9.30, respectively.

Elron's ticket prices rose by an average of 10 percent in January, due mainly to rising infrastructure fees and service costs; July 1 saw the end of free travel for Ukraine war refugees and of reduced discounts for online and ticket machine purchases.

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