With the election fast approaching, ETV's "Välisilm" reported on the situation in eastern Ukraine and how it may affect the war.

Autumn amid the plowed fields of the Donbas may look peaceful enough, but just 20 kilometers away a war is raging.

Viktor, a farmer, told "Välisilm": "We are doing our work, sowing grain. We hope the area will stay a part of Ukraine. For now, though, we have no plans to leave. We will remain here until the last instant, then we will see what happens next."

Viktor Filashkin, head of the Donetsk oblast's administration, said: "Before the full-scale war started, nearly two million people lived in our oblast."

The bulk of these have left, he added. "One and a half million of them have since left, to preserve their own lives, as well as the lives of their children, parents and grandparents."

Last year, Ukrainian forces liberated part of the occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast to the southwest.

A Ukrainian soldier with the call-sign "Greek" said: "Last year was tough. We liberated Robotyne, took up defensive positions there, but they concentrated so many troops and equipment there that we couldn't hold out against that. We had to retreat tactically."

The course of the war going forward also hugely depends on who wins the U.S. presidential election on November 5, followed by the inauguration in January.

Samus said: "It can be inferred that from November 5 until January 20, both Russia and Ukraine will have a window of opportunity to achieve their objectives."

"In Russia they will have much freer hands, but Ukraine will likely be requested not to escalate the situation ahead of November 5 – to not to strike Crimea or the Kerch Bridge[s], plus to dial down drone and missile strikes on Russian territory," Samus continued, adding that this would be coming from the incumbent administration in the U.S.

"The reason for this is that it could lead to an escalation, which could hinder Kamala Harris' chances of winning the election," he commented.

Interesting news is coming from Russia in any case, Samus went on.

"They have opted to hike the initial payout for signing a contract with the military, to three million rubles."

While that may sound a lot, it comes to US$30,000 – with no guarantee the signatory will be able to make it back with their life.

"This is a little more than US$30,000. And this means that they lack manpower to achieve their goals," Samus said, noting it was a significant rise on the US$20,000, or two million rubles, previously offered for signing on and suggesting that the Russians were having trouble filling their ranks via the carrot method.

Of course, when multiplied by the number of personnel needed, either sum comes to a lot.

"They are willing to offer large sums to occupy the Donetsk oblast. But for that, they need people," Samus went on.

An additional factor is that Russian conscripts are not supposed to be deployed outside of Russia itself.

Either way, the development reflects a fall in the quality of troops even from Russia's notoriously broad spectrum in this area.

"The quality of their human resources has dropped," Samus said.

One Ukrainian soldier, call-sign "Kass," confirmed this.

"Whereas before, we took as POWs soldiers who had undergone two, four, or even six months of training ,under the Wagner group, now the careers of new soldiers are short-lived. We have captured soldiers who have been in combat for less than two weeks after joining the army," he told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Ukraine also lacks resources which fresh mobilization may not fully resolve.

Ukraine is facing its own personnel problems too, but another soldier, "Rune sign," told ERR that conscription is not the answer.

"I don't want to see forcibly mobilized individuals in my unit. They could desert at any moment. We can't rely on them to complete missions," he said.

After occupying the Donbas area, Russian forces can also advance further into the Zaporizhzhia direction – famously the nuclear power station there was seized by Russian forces early on in the invasion.

One objective of the Ukrainian Kursk incursion may have been to return the favor by taking the nuclear power station of the same name, there.

Ukrainian soldier "Professor," said: "We induce this from the fact that they are now hitting us much more, with multiple rocket launchers and with drones."

"When our Kursk operation started, it turned much quieter here – fewer drones, and less shelling. Now, the activity has risen again. This causes us concern. They are preparing for an attack, and we are preparing for defense," "Professor" went on.

And what about the likelihood that Russia and Ukraine will start negotiations, at least to achieve a ceasefire situation along the current front line?

Samus said: "The Russians are doing fine," by their own lights.

"They are moving forward, they have plenty of resources; North Korea is supplying them with ammunition, Iran is giving them drones, and they have their own missiles. Why should they stop now?"

"Putin needs a Ukrainian capitulation. Then he can say, 'Let us freeze the conflict, but under conditions where Ukraine will not join NATO or the EU... Okay... we can still think about the EU,' " the expert went on.

For one Ukrainian soldier, "Babashmal," there is no end in immediate sight come what may.

"It probably won't happen anytime soon. It could end more quickly though. I'd like to go home, to my family," he said.

Not everyone favors talks, regardless of the situation.

"Rune sign" said: "There should be no negotiations with the enemy under any circumstances. The only negotiations should be with those countries willing to give us the weaponry and ammunition to drive the enemy out," he said.

Anton Aleksejev and camera operator Kristjan Svirgsden have been filing regular reports from Ukraine and for ERR since the full-scale invasion began over two-and-a-half years ago.

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