Ahead of the release of the report "Active consumers in the future energy system," Foresight Center director Tea Danilov said that the role and influence of producing consumers, or prosumers, in the future energy system must be analyzed in more depth, according to a press release.

"The growing number of prosumers makes ensuring voltage quality in the grid and planning and managing the electricity grid more complicated, and it requires new technological solutions," Danilov said. "This, in turn, may require investments and increase grid usage fees."

Foresight Center expert Märt Masso noted that by 2024, up to 44,000 homes in Estonia could be powered by solar energy.

"The growth of energy prosumption in Estonia accelerated in 2021-2022, when the price of electricity was high," Masso said. "Today we forecast that this growth will slow down in the next decade, but by 2040 there will still be two to four times more prosumers in Estonia than currently. One important incentive is the energy efficiency requirements set for new buildings."

He added that the Foresight Center examined consumers producing up to 25 kilowatts (kW) as microproducers, which can be individuals, institutions or small businesses.

Currently, there are 17,102 prosumers in Estonia, but by 2040 that number could reach around 44,000 prosumers, who would produce and consume up to four times more electricity than currently. Prosumers can operate both individually and, for example, by joining energy cooperatives.

According to Danilov, there are two sides to the increase in prosumers.

"On one hand, it provides additional emission-free production and reduces energy consumption in the distribution grid," she explained. "On the other, it can destabilize the system as it adds generation to the grid in surplus hours and additional consumption in deficit hours. Thus, it's important that prosumers utilize more storage possibilities."

Although producing consumption is on the rise, its share of the electricity system isn't, the think tank noted.

Based on an analysis carried out by leading machine learning and data science company STACC, the Foresight Center found that microgeneration of electricity in homes does not jeopardize the balance of the energy system.

"According to current forecasts, as Estonia's general electricity production and consumption is growing at a similar magnitude to the growth in the number of prosumers, their impact on the stability of the system will not increase," Masso stressed.

Its research stream "Active consumers in the future energy system: development trends through 2040" aims to identify key factors that shape the active role of consumers in the future energy system as well as develop scenarios describing the possible impact of households and other microproducers on the Estonian energy system through the year 2040.

The Foresight Center is a think tank at the Chancellery of the Riigikogu that analyzes long-term developments in society and the economy. It conducts research on a range of topics in order to anticipate emerging trends as well as potential disruptions.

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