Russian President Vladimir Putin began a visit to China on Thursday (May 16), seeking to strengthen ties with Beijing, which are crucial to the war in Ukraine.

The two-day trip has both symbolic and practical significance. It is Putin's first foreign trip since the start of his fifth term and a response to Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow as his first destination since the start of his third term last year.

Putin's trip to China, however, comes after two top American officials, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, both pressed their Chinese counterparts to curb exports that support Russia's defense industry. The U.S. has recently imposed sanctions on a number of Chinese companies with links to Russia, and has reportedly targeted Chinese banks linked to support for military action.

The visit also comes shortly after Xi's trip to Europe, where he called for a ceasefire during the Paris Olympics, and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken's recent trip to Ukraine.

There is no doubt that China is playing the role of bigger brother, but Beijing also has its own shopping list to present to Moscow. Russia, in turn, needs China to survive sanctions and to counterbalance it in its conflict with the West.

Economic and financial ties between the two countries have grown significantly since the war began. According to Chinese customs data, trade turnover reached a record $240 billion in 2023. The diversion of Russian crude oil to China following the European Union's import ban has helped maintain Russia's export earnings, while trade with China ensures continued access to machinery, equipment and consumer goods, including "dual-use" goods with potential military applications.

Chinese companies have increased trade with Russia even under the threat of sanctions. China's exports to Russia jumped 46 percent year-on-year in 2023 to $111 billion and have continued to rise this year, growing 6 percent in January-March. Similarly, Russia's exports to China grew by 11 percent in the first quarter of 2024, after rising by 13 percent in 2023 and 43 percent in 2022.

In an interview with the state news agency Xinhua published on Wednesday this week, Putin welcomed the "rapid growth" in economic ties with China: "Given the global turbulence and economic problems in the West, such results prove once again the strategic wisdom of our sovereign course and pursuit of national interests."

Nevertheless, storm clouds hang over China-Russia ties. An order issued by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) last December threatens to impose sanctions on foreign financial institutions that facilitate trade with sanctioned Russian companies and individuals. This appears to be having an impact.

According to media reports, Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank was the first bank to stop serving Russian customers, followed by two payment systems, PingPong and Xtransfer. The payment disruptions could disrupt trade between the two countries, "so the Kremlin wants this to be resolved as soon as possible."

With the visit, Putin wants to show at home that the country is not isolated but has powerful friends. At the same time, he wants to demonstrate to the West that Russia and China have a close relationship "which is the basis for a multipolar world no longer dominated by the United States."

China's list of priorities includes greater access to Russian scientific expertise, which could help narrow the gap with the U.S. in space exploration more quickly; access to the Arctic; secure supply lines for critical energy and other resources.

It can be argued that Beijing is using the current geopolitical tensions to boost its competitiveness, including by underpricing oil, gas and other industrial materials such as aluminium, nickel, timber and the like imported from Russia. This will further improve China's economic competitive advantage over the West.

Close relations with Russia will also benefit Xi domestically. Since China is largely not seen by the public as Russia's villain in the Ukraine conflict, ties with Moscow may not bring Xi any reputational damage at home. On the contrary, Russia's involvement in Chinese projects gives them a kind of legitimacy as "international" initiatives in the eyes of other Chinese partners, especially in the Global South, while at the same time showing China as an international leader. The Moon Research Station joint project is one such example.

So while American and European interlocutors have urged Beijing to cool relations with Moscow, it seems unlikely that Xi will reconsider his position.

On the Ukraine war, the Chinese leadership's position has remained consistent since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. China has repeatedly called for a ceasefire, while stressing that efforts to resolve the conflict should involve all parties, including Russia.

In France, Xi rejected criticism of China's role, saying: "We are opposed to using this crisis to put the responsibility on a third country and damage its reputation, and to incite a new Cold War."

So far, there is no sign of a change in Beijing's stance, although it was invited to the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland in June, while Moscow was not. As Russia sees the event as another attempt to isolate it, China's participation could strain relations. Indeed, China has stressed its support for inclusive negotiations.

"We applaud China's approaches to resolving the Ukrainian crisis," Putin told Xinhua. "Beijing is well aware of its root causes and global geopolitical importance."

Putin and Xi are also likely to discuss plans for reshaping the global order, including through the expansion of the BRICS group, which is due to hold its summit in Kazan, Russia, in October this year.

The BRICS group originally included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates invited to join from 1 January 2024. Beijing and Moscow are keen to involve even more countries in the coming years. The main message Putin and Xi want to send with their meeting is that "the West's 200-year monopoly on global economic and political power is now coming to an end."

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