US ex-representative to Ukraine: Russia playing a weaker hand than it might seem

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is playing a much weaker hand in the war in Ukraine than he lets on, former United States Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker said Thursday.
Speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera" (AK) on the sidelines of day one of the Lennart Meri Conference (LMC) in Tallinn, Volker also said that the U.S. delay in providing the latest military aid package to Ukraine was a significant setback for that country, a setback which should not be repeated.
In remarks made during his keynote speech at this year's Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), noted that Ukraine's situation appears to be more in the mire than it was a year ago.
This has been particularly evident in light of Russia's recent advances in the Kharkiv oblast of northern Ukraine, an area which it first hit in the initial phases of the full-scale invasion.
Other analysts at LMC agreed that while there is no reason for great sorrow, there is certainly no cause for celebration either.
Oleksandr Danylyuk, former adviser to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, told AK: "After a seven-month strategic pause without U.S. aid Ukraine is out of ammunition."
"So it's very difficult to predict anything but obviously Ukrainian armed forces will do their best, to prevent the Russians from taking more territories," Danylyuk went on.
Former U.S. Special Representative Volker meanwhile said that the delay in American aid – the US$60 billion (€56.3 billion) packaged finally got congressional approval last month – had indeed been a setback for Ukrainians and had provided Russia a window of opportunity to attack critical infrastructure.
Volker entered the limelight a few years ago after then U.S. President Donald Trump was charged with applying political pressure to Ukraine by threatening to withhold military aid.
Right now, Volker said it is unclear what Trump's policy towards Ukraine would be were he to return as POTUS after this November's elections.
"When this was stalled in Congress and it was difficult for Speaker [Mike] Johnson to bring it to a vote on the floor, it was Trump who gave Johnson political cover to get it done," Volker said.
Additionally, Volker stressed that Vladimir Putin is actually playing a much weaker hand than he makes out.
Volker also said the recent change of Russian defense minister is primarily an attempt to find financial means to increase defense production.
"He's burned through all the modern weapons and equipment and things, and he's reaching into storage and getting stuff from the World War Two era."
Volker said he does not share the view that Russia has an endless supply of manpower to send to fight in Ukraine.
Danylyuk, on the other hand, dismissed claims that Ukraine was running out of soldiers, stating that the problem lies more in equipping them rather than recruiting them.
"They have literally no mechanization, nothing and a lot of them are trained people with a huge battlefield experience."
Danylyuk added that the Russian objective in Kharkiv is primarily to divert Ukrainian attention away from Donbas, to the east.
Kurt Volker, 59, was U.S. Ambassador to NATO towards the end of George W. Bush's presidency.
He served in a volunteer capacity as Donald J. Trump's U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine until his resignation from that post in September 2019, amid claims that while acting in his official capacity in that role, he had been told by the White House "to intercede with President Zelenskyy" on investigations into Joe Biden, in an effort to discredit the latter ahead of the 2020 election.
A subsequent whistleblower complaint alleged that he had "provided advice to the Ukrainian leadership about how to 'navigate' the request that the President had made of Mr. Zelensky."
LMC 2024 started Thursday and continues to Saturday.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Maria-Ann Rohemäe.