Pavel said in February that Czechia has found a way to source 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine. It became clear in the first half of March that the money to buy the shells was there and that they could reach Ukraine in a matter of weeks.

Väli said that Pavel drew on his past experience to find the ammunition.

"I believe his military background comes into it. He is calm, listens to what people have to say and gives them room to maneuver, and he's also thorough," Väli said, suggesting that Pavel's experience from NATO Headquarters and the EU came together in the initiative.

He said the shells are still being produced and will be delivered gradually.

"Rather, we are talking about orders that factories still have to fill. I believe not every shell has been produced yet and they will be delivered over a period of time," the reserve general noted, adding that shells for the first shipments are probably already in warehouses.

Väli suggested that it is not out of the question that countries that take a neutral stance or even those who tend to side with Russia might end up selling munitions to Ukraine.

"Looking at countries capable of producing these calibers (155 and 122 mm – ed.), they can be found in Europe, Asia and Africa. And I believe it is entirely possible because /.../ I understand the Czechs' scheme, instead of them getting paid, is bringing together the manufacturer and the donating country. If the buyer is a powerful country with a good reputation, it could well happen that third countries will sell a batch of munitions to the former, perhaps for a little more money. We also cannot rule out, if the supplier is somewhere in Asia, Russia being after the same consignment," Väli told the show on Sunday.

He suggested the Czech initiative may be proving more successful than the EU plan of giving Ukraine a million shells as the latter initially required the shells to be produced in Europe.

Väli said some of the shells have or are about to arrive in Ukraine.

Russia lacks strength for another conflict next to Ukraine

There have been recent warnings in the media about Russia preparing for a long confrontation with NATO. For example, the Lithuanian intelligence said in its annual report that Russia is spending a lot of money military development also outside the Ukraine war.

Väli said that while such reports should be taken seriously, the important question is what to do with the information.

"Looking at the big picture, it is Russia's goal to be among the power centers of the world. And for Russia's influence to wax, someone else's needs to wane. Where Europe is concerned, it is Russia's goal to dismantle the existing security architecture with NATO among its core pillars. Therefore, contrasting to NATO is clearly part of Russia's foreign and security policy doctrine," the reserve general said.

But Väli explained that while Russia is trying to prepare for a possible confrontation with the alliance, it is not capable of doing anything else with the Ukraine war raging.

He said that while Russia is taking steps on paper, changing the military districts structure, creating new armies, divisions and brigades, he doubts the country has the strength to create any of it in physical form in the current stage of the war in Ukraine.

"Weaponry is just one component therein. All these new armies need commanders. Second, they need personnel, equipment etc. There is very little except plans on paper and perhaps some old buildings that used to serve a military purpose today. The intensity of the war today is such that Russia lacks the strength to create much of anything in parallel," Väli said.

He also said that different time frames have been proposed for when a possible confrontation between Russia and NATO could come to a head.

"We have suggested it could be three years, the Germans came up with eight years etc. These guesses are always tied to conditions, which tend to change in their turn. But the one thing they all have in common, as far as I have seen, is that the war in Ukraine must be over. Secondly, that it cannot have ended with a total Russian defeat. They will need to have saved at least some face and resources. Third, the international situation must be such that the collective West is busy with other conflicts elsewhere. That is when we might find that the Russia threat has grown to a point where we should be even more serious about it," Väli explained.

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