The polls feature candidate names – European elections are well-known for being more personality- than party-focused – and will be conducted regularly through to polling day, June 9.

Estonia is treated as a single electoral district at European elections, and, post-Brexit, seven mandates are to be voted on.

The first Kantar survey forecasts two seats apiece for SDE and Reform, the same tallies the two parties currently have in Strasbourg and Brussels.

By individual candidate, the most popular at present are Marina Kaljurand (SDE) and Jaak Madison (EKRE), according to Kantar Emor. Both are sitting MEPs.

In its survey, Kantar Emor listed four candidate names for each party, names which the parties themselves had suggested to ERR as potential candidates in early March.

With the exception of SDE which has confirmed its list already, the names are not officially confirmed candidates.

Each party may field up to a maximum of nine candidates at European elections, and most parties running do.

The poll was conducted March 14-20 and revealed the highest support going to SDE (at 21.4 percent) and the Reform Party (18.9 percent).

These two are followed closely by Isamaa at 16.7 percent, EKRE at 15.4 percent, and the Center Party at 13.9 percent.

Parempoolsed, campaigning in only its second election, polled at 5.9 percent, ahead of Eesti 200 (5.6 percent), which has 14 Riigikogu seats, though no MEPs.

Other parties (Greens, EÜVP etc.) collectively amassed 1 percent support, and in any case either could not, or were unwilling to, present their candidates to Kantar Emor.

Given the sample size of 1,135 voting-age citizens who expressed a preference, Kantar claims a maximum possible margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

Based on the survey results, Kantar Emor's research expert Aivar Voog also calculated the possible distribution of mandates.

On this basis, SDE and the Reform Party would each get two mandates as noted, while Isamaa, EKRE, and the Center Party would each get one mandate at the European Parliament – again, unchanged on the status quo.

Ratas trails Terras, Reinsalu

The most popular individual candidates are clearly Marina Kaljurand (SDE) with 13.9 percent and Jaak Madison (EKRE) with 11.9 percent support according to Kantar.

Kaljurand's supporters comprise more women, while Madison's are predominantly men, Kantar Emor said.

By comparison, at the last European elections in May 2019, Kaljurand received 19.7 percent of the vote, Madison about 7 percent.

In 2019, the second most-backed candidate after Kaljurand was former prime minister and former European commissioner Andrus Ansip, who received 12.4 percent of the actual vote on the day.

This time around, Ansip, along with former EDF commander Riho Terras (Isamaa), former foreign minister Urmas Paet (Reform), Jana Toom (Center), Tallinn Mayor Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) and Isamaa chair and former foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu enjoy fairly equal support ratings, in the 5.5-6.7 percent range.

Of these, Terras, Paet, Ansip and Toom are sitting MEPs.

Sven Mikser (SDE), the seventh sitting MEP, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) and former prime minister Jüri Ratas (Isamaa) round off the top 10, with four percent apiece.

Ratas joined Isamaa earlier this year and is a former Center Party chair.

SDE's Key Issue: Getting the young to the ballot box

On examining the support profile of each party, SDE's rating stands out in the younger respondent demographic (ages 18–34 years) where it polls at 34.8 percent, while in the older age groups (50–64 and 65+), it reaches only 16.2 and 14.2 percent respectively.

This presents a problem for SDE in that voter turnout among younger respondents is typically lower, so the current high rating both in that age group and overall may not translate to election day results.

SDE's supporters are predominantly women (25 percent rating overall) compared to men (18 percent rating).

The bulk of the Reform Party's support derives thanks to two names – the party's existing MEPs, Urmas Paet and Andrus Ansip, with Hanno Pevkur getting honorable mention. This suggests a recent war of words between Ansip and party leader and Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has not harmed the former's chances.

Unlike SDE, the Reform Party benefits from higher ratings among older age groups, again who tend to bring a higher voter turnout.

For Isamaa, the higher support is also associated with two names – party Reinsalu and Terras.

Jüri Ratas may currently be the keenest campaigner, but at present, he doesn't quite reach the same level according to Kantar.

Were Reinsalu to decline his mandate upon election, preferring to stay in domestic politics, plus if Isamaa were to secure two mandates, Ratas would be the prime contender for that post in any case.

As with Reform, Isamaa's supporters include an equal number of men and women.

EKRE's support, similar to that of its counterpart at the opposite of the political spectrum, SDE, derives largely from one person, current MEP Jaak Madison.

EKRE's supporter base is predominantly male – the party rates at 19 percent among men respondents, 12 percent among women.

EKRE is set to announce and confirm its candidates list at a board meeting tomorrow, Saturday.

For the Center Party, support for Jana Toom and Mihhail Kõlvart, who is campaigning on her behalf in effect (ie. Kõlvart would remain in Estonia), is fairly equal according to the pollsters.

The Center Party's support comes mainly from voters of other nationalities, meaning native speakers of Russian primarily, at 55 percent, while support among native Estonian-speaking voters is marginal at 3.2 percent.

The options for other parties to secure a mandate are only theoretical at this stage, just two-and-a-half months before polling day.

Parempoolsed and Eesti 200 would not pass the threshold of votes required to win a seat regardless of turnout, while neither party currently has a standout candidate even as they have some big names running, and Eesti 200 has 14 Riigikogu seats.

Parempoolsed is a fairly newly founded party and only started receiving state support from a year ago; Eesti 200 was founded in 2018 making this the party's second European election. It has had something of a baptism of fire in entering into office at the national level for the first time, which it did last April.

In 2019, Isamaa secured the final mandate, under the d'Hondt system of proportional representation, at 10.3 percent of the vote. That seat went to Terras on a provisional basis, later confirmed by the redistribution of around a third of the UK's former 74 European mandates; Estonia received one extra MEP seat in this way.

Back in 2014, independent candidate Indrek Tarand made it to the European Parliament for a second term with 13.2 percent of the vote, as noted when Estonia had six EU seats.

The European Parliament elections are scheduled for June 6-9, with the last of these dates being polling day in Estonia, preceded by a week's advance voting period.

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