The Ministry of Regional Affairs and Agriculture commissioned the second half of the survey, which found that food prices have fallen at the buying-in, but not for consumers.

Trade's share of food prices has continued to climb. The survey looked at price developments for dairy, cereals, meat, vegetables and eggs.

Peeter Raudsepp, head of the Estonian Institute of Economic Research, said that food costs have climbed so much in the previous two years that customers don't notice retail price stabilization or falls. "We are used to steep rises, and a few changes do not catch the attention of most consumers," said he.

The poll found that Estonian milk prices rose from €40.35 to €42.69 per kilogram in the fourth quarter compared to the third. Similar growth was seen across the EU. However, retail prices for milk in plastic bags remained unchanged in Estonia, falling by €0.06 per liter compared to the third quarter.

A liter of plastic milk cost €0.83 in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to €0.77 in the previous quarter. So for the second straight quarter, the share of trade in the price of plastic milk fell.

Trade was 11 percent (€0.09) in the third quarter of 2023 and 8 percent (€0.06) in the fourth. Both industry and raw materials increased from the third quarter.

Raudsepp also noted that the retail price of a one-liter carton of milk has dropped by two cents, but unlike milk in plastic bag, the retailer's share has now risen to 27 percent of the total price. In the first quarter of 2020, for example, it was just 19 percent.

"In 2022, in the case of cartoon packs, 34 percent of the product's retail price went to the milk producer, whereas now it is 26 percent. The industry's share of the price has remained broadly similar, at 30.4 percent of the final price today," Raudsepp said.

For both Edam and Gouda cheeses, the share of trade in the retail price increased between the third and fourth quarters. Edam also saw an overall price increase from €11.3 to €11.5 per kilo. The share of trade increased by 2.2 percentage points, while the shares of industry and raw materials decreased by 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.

The price of Gouda per kilo decreased from €11.3 to €11.0. The share of trade and raw materials increased by 1.8 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, while the share of industry decreased by 2.2 percentage points.

"Similar to dairy products, the share of trade in cereal products increased in the last quarter of 2023, while the share of raw materials has decreased. For example, the price of wheat flour to the consumer remained unchanged in the second half of last year, but the traders' share increased by 2.2 percentage points, from €0.36 to €0.39 cents, while the industry's share fell by €0.02 and the raw material share by €0.01," Raudsepp said.

The situation is more varied for vegetables. The price of ordinary potatoes fell by 16 cents over the quarter. However, even in a situation of falling prices, the share of the trade has increased, from 39 percent to 41 percent, and the share of the producer has fallen, from 44 percent to 43 percent.

At the same time, however, there has been the opposite movement in the retail price breakdown for organic potatoes, carrots, cabbage and cucumbers, with the share of trade falling, and in some cases significantly. For example, from 42 percent to 32 percent for carrots and from 35 percent to 17 percent for cucumbers. The producer share has risen accordingly.

Raudsepp also pointed out that the buying-in price of pork in Estonia has fallen from €2.14 in the second quarter to €2 in the second quarter of 2023. However, this has not affected, for example, the price per kilo of home minced meat, which has risen by 14 cents.

The share of the raw material price for minced meat has fallen by 2.8 percentage points, from 50 percent to 47 percent. The share of industry and trade has increased. The price per kilo of minced beef has also risen from €11.7 to €11.9 and, as with pork, the share of trade and industry has increased and the share of raw materials has fallen.

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